527
FXUS62 KTAE 121653
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1153 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA TODAY
WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR, COUPLED WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND EVEN A FEW 80S
RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 800 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK W/ NO CHANGES NEEDED; TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 THIS
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
AFTER A COLD START TO THE MORNING WITH A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, THE MUCH ANTICIPATED
WARMUP OUT OF THE RECENT ICEBOX COMMENCES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY ELONGATE AND SAG SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAKES A RUN TOWARDS
NORTH FLORIDA FRIDAY BUT WEAKENS AND ESSENTIALLY WASHES OUT EARLY
THIS WEEKEND. ALOFT, A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES BY THURSDAY THEN
RIDGING WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MOISTURE BEGINS A GRADUAL RETURN STARTING
TODAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH
THEN BECOME VARIABLE AS THAT HIGH MEANDERS AROUND THE GULF COAST.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE IS SET UP
TO OUR WEST. LONGER RANGE MODELS DO TRY TO SEND A FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST US LATER SUNDAY OR MONDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND NBM
HAS TRENDED DOWN ON THE RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS TODAY WILL PUSH TOWARDS
70 DEGREES THEN BEGINNING THURSDAY HIGHS WILL REACH TOWARDS THE MID
70S WITH EVEN A FEW 80S LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND TODAY BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY. SOME FOG
IS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND KECP AND KDHN, BUT CONFIDENCE WASN'T
HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER VISIBILITY TOO MUCH AS OF THIS ISSUANCE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 111 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN GULF
WATERS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE
MARINE CONDITIONS FEATURING LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY BECOMING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LOW SEAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 111 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA TODAY AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 22-28%,
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND ALONG I-75 COUPLED WITH ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. FURTHER WEST, GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN COMMENCES AS WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEWPOINTS RECOVER INTO THE 40S. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF INTO THE SOUTHEAST
US WHICH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS IN THE LOW 30% TO MID 40% RANGE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 111 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN MAYBE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 69 46 74 46 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 69 53 74 52 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 69 45 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 69 42 73 41 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 68 42 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 69 43 75 44 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 66 52 72 54 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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