154
FXUS62 KTAE 122343
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
643 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA TODAY
WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR, COUPLED WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND EVEN A FEW 80S
RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
THE COLD SNAP IS OVER UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE! WE CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S INLAND, TO AROUND
50 DEGREES ALONG THE EMERALD COAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL BUT THE DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP,
PARTICULARLY IN THE FL AND AL WIREGRASS REGIONS TONIGHT.
A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S,
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES BY THE END OF THIS WEEKEND, AND LOW
80S INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID- 40S, WARMING TO AROUND 50 BY THIS WEEKEND AND MID-50S
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER IT WILL WASH OUT BEFORE
THERE IS MUCH IMPACT FOR US. ONLY EXPECTATIONS ARE A DECREASE IN
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY BUT, THE ACTUAL TEMPS
WON'T BE AFFECTED MUCH.
NEAR THE END OF THE LONG TERM, A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHICH COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT, INDICATING LOW
CONFIDENCE. POPS FOR TUESDAY ARE LESS THAN 10% FOR OUR SE ALABAMA
COUNTIES AND EASTERN FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
LIGHT WESTERLY WIND BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY,
EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF SEABREEZE AT ECP. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND KECP AND KDHN, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT DHN
WHERE WE'VE DROPPED VSBY A BIT WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN
GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS FEATURING LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LOW
SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
MOISTURE RETURN DURING THE WEEK WILL LEAD TO LOWERED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. TRANSPORT WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AND
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL GENERALLY BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE
REST OF WEEK, BEFORE CLOCKING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
BY THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS FOR THURSDAY WILL BE FAIR TO
MODERATE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE POOR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. POOR DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, WITH LOW
VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND POCKETS OF LOW DISPERSIONS
THROUGHOUT OUR INLAND DISTRICTS. MINRH DROPS AGAIN ON FRIDAY DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, BRINGING HUMIDITY
VALUES DOWN TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S FOR OUR GEORGIA DISTRICTS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT HOWEVER, DUE TO THE ANTECEDENT DRY
CONDITIONS, ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE REGION. MORE FAIR TO MODERATE DISPERSIONS RETURN FOR
SATURDAY, AREA-WIDE. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL DISTRICTS
EACH MORNING AS HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OR WORSEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 69 47 74 46 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 69 53 74 51 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 69 45 73 43 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 68 42 73 41 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 68 42 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 69 43 75 44 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 68 52 72 53 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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