793
FXUS62 KTAE 131720
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1220 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025
- GRADUAL WARMUP AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. HIGHS REACH THE LOW 80S IN MOST INLAND LOCATIONS
STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A DROP IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY, SO DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OR WORSEN.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025
THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONTINUATION OF RAIN-
FREE WEATHER AND WORSENING DROUGHT. WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO AN
EVEN WARMER AIR MASS NEXT WEEK.
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE 5-DAY AVERAGE 500 MB PATTERN
THROUGH MONDAY WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH FROM
TEXAS THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS, WITH A TROUGH FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHWARD PAST BERMUDA. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION UNDER DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WITHIN THIS FLOW, THE VERY TAIL END OF A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
BRUSH BY ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA ON SUNDAY. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, LIGHT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW
OFF THE GULF WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S, BUT
THEN THE FRONT WILL BE INEFFECTIVE AT PUSHING DRIER OR COOLER AIR
BACK SOUTH INTO THE REGION.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY, THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
START TO MOVE EASTWARD. SO THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER TEXAS WILL
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY,
THE CROSS OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE DECIDEDLY SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH SHOULD MOISTEN
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO NEAR OR ABOVE THE 60F MARK. WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT, MORE PLACES WILL SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES PASSING THE
80-DEGREE MARK AROUND MIDWEEK, WHILE THE MUGGIER AIR MASS WILL DO
EVEN MORE TO PROP UP NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES.
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR MIDWEEK IS THAT THE JET STREAM WILL STEER
ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL WEST AND NORTH OF OUR REGION.
NONETHELESS, WE DO INTRODUCE LOW (15-20 PERCENT) RAIN CHANCES NEXT
THURSDAY TO THE PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA WIREGRASS. IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY, POSSIBLY
CONFLUENT FLOW OFF THE GULF, LOW RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ADEQUATE
TO COVER ANY LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS THAT CAN DEVELOP.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY MORNING
FOLLOWING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THAT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025
THROUGH SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
BRING A CONTINUATION OF GENTLE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES. A TURN
TO MODERATE WESTERLY BREEZES IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A DRY COLD
FRONT BRUSHES BY NORTH OF THE WATERS. SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY, FRESHENING A BIT ON TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025
A DRYING OF THE AIR MASS ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY WHERE IT IS DRIEST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. A WEAK RETURN OF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF
THE GULF THIS WEEKEND WILL START TO MOISTEN THE AIR MASS. THE DRY
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING ADDED GUSTINESS TO A
WEST WIND THAT DAY. A TURN TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THAT FLOW NEXT WEEK WILL BRING AN EVEN WARMER AND
MOISTER AIR MASS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OR WORSEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 47 76 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 52 76 51 75 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 45 75 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 42 75 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 43 75 42 78 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 45 77 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 54 72 53 72 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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