719
FXUS62 KTAE 142335
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
635 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 621 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
- DROUGHT WILL PERSIST AND/OR WORSEN WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS COMBINED WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THIS
AFTERNOON STRETCHES FROM NORTH GEORGIA EASTWARD INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA. THIS FEATURE WILL SETTLE DIRECTLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS I-10
ON SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHEAST GULF ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER NIGHT OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING,
GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND THE DRY AIR MASS.
OTHERWISE, NE TO E LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS
EVENING SHOULD PUSH ENOUGH SHALLOW ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND
TONIGHT TO SEE AREAS OF FOG AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY ALONG THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND OF THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
THE TAIL END OF A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH ACROSS ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA ON SUNDAY. TO ITS SOUTH, LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
START TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. IN CONTRAST TO THE DRY AIR MASS THAT IS CURRENTLY
OVER OUR SERVICE AREA, SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM WESTERN ALABAMA
WESTWARD ARE IN THE MOISTER 55F-60F RANGE. SO ONCE LOW-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW KICKS IN, THAT MOISTER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD. YET THE DRY COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL NEVER REALLY PUSH
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS ANY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE U.S. 82
CORRIDOR (EUFAULA-ALBANY-TIFTON). SO FOR MOST OF THE REGION, ONCE
THE MOISTER AIR ARRIVES, IT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE IN PROPPING UP NIGHTTIME AND
MORNING TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S ARE ALSO
A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED RANGE FOR EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE COLD
SEASON, SO THERE LOOK FOR MORE FOGGY MORNINGS NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY,
THEN MOVE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A TURN TO LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW, KEEPING THE AIR
MASS ON THE WARMER AND MODESTLY MUGGY SIDE.
A LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL HANG OUT OVER TEXAS THIS WEEKEND
WILL MOVE EAST NEXT WEEK, PASSING DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR REGION
AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONCE IT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST ON THURSDAY, WE WILL START TO COME UNDER SOUTHWEST-WEST
FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE WANTING
RAIN, THE JET STREAM WILL STEER A WET SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF OUR
REGION AROUND NEXT FRIDAY, ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THIS FAR SOUTH, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR ISOLATED LOW-
TOPPED SHOWERS TO LINE UP IN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
GULF AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SE ALABAMA. THERE
ARE SOME NOTABLE OUTLIER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE 00Z ECMWF THAT
EXTEND A WET FRONT FURTHER SOUTH, BRINGING A BETTER COVERAGE OF
BENEFICIAL RAIN NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FOR NOW, THOSE
BENEFICIAL SCENARIOS ARE OUTLIERS, SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE
ADEQUATE FOR AREAS WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT RIVERS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
CANNOT RULE OUT FOG IMPACTING ECP AND TO A LESSER EXTEND TLH/VLD
AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW.
AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT ALONG W/AN INVERSION,
CANNOT RULE OUT VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT ABY DUE TO SMOKE SETTLING
CLOSER TO THE GROUND FROM WILDFIRES IN SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 118 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
GENTLE NORTHEAST BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ON SATURDAY, AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES DIRECTLY
OVER THE WATERS. MODERATE WESTERLY BREEZES WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT
BRUSHING ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL
EMERGE LATE MONDAY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE A LITTLE EACH DAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 118 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL LINGER ON SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
25-30 PERCENT RANGE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY, THE TAIL END
OF A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH BY ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THE
AIR MASS WILL MOISTEN A LITTLE ON SUNDAY, BUT PROXIMITY OF THE DRY
FRONT WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS
ACROSS THE DISTRICTS ON MONDAY. ONCE IT MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY, A
TURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MOISTEN THE AIR MASS FURTHER.
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND INLAND OF THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST. ON SUNDAY
MORNING, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. 84
CORRIDOR.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 118 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. ANY
RAINFALL LATER NEXT WEEK WILL NOT BE HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT.
THEREFORE, DROUGHT WILL PERSIST AND/OR WORSEN. FOR MORE
INFORMATION, SEE OUR LOCAL DROUGHT STATEMENT AT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 76 46 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 76 51 75 61 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 75 45 77 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 75 42 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 75 44 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 77 44 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 72 54 72 60 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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