078
FXUS62 KTAE 151949
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
249 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
- THE PROBABILITY FOR DENSE FOG IMPACTING SUNDAY MORNING TRAVEL
IS AT LEAST 50% ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 FL, THE FLINT RIVER
VALLEY, AND NEAR THE SUWANEE VALLEY FL.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA FOR CRITICALLY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
- SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, AND THERE IS A 60% CHANCE OF A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
ALONG WALTON, BAY, AND WEST-FACING GULF COUNTY BEACHES SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
A PLEASANT AND DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THE DRY AIR MASS WITH RH VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S
(CLOSER TO THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE), MAINLY FROM THE
FLINT RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD IN SOUTHWEST GA, IS CONTRIBUTING
TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
EASY FIRE STARTS POSSIBLE.
MOVING ON INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, THE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
DENSE. WHILE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE, GUIDANCE
IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH RESPECT TO THE PLACEMENT OF FOG,
1) DUE TO A LOW-LEVEL JET W/ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS, ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST OF THE FL BIG BEND AND 2) UNCERTAINTY IN HOW STOUT
THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BECOMES WHICH WILL INFLUENCE STRENGTH
OF THE SURFACE WINDS. FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD BE
INTERMITTENT (TOUCH AND GO) GIVEN ELEVATED WINDS, BUT WHERE
THE SURFACE WIND RELAXES MOST, DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HIGHEST PROBABILITY (AOA 50%) FOR DENSE FOG IMPACTING SUNDAY
MORNING TRAVEL UNTIL ~9 AM ET/8 AM CT IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10 FL, FLINT RIVER VALLEY, AND NEAR THE SUWANEE VALLEY FL.
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE SUNDAY WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS
AND CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF A DRY
COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE AROUND 20 MPH. THIS WILL LEAD TO BRISK ONSHORE FLOW
ALONG THE EMERALD AND PORTIONS OF THE FORGOTTEN COASTS, WITH
A 60% CHANCE OF A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG WALTON, BAY,
AND WEST-FACING GULF COUNTY BEACHES SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE WORK WEEK WITH
DRY WEATHER UNTIL THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AFTER A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE MAINLY ACROSS
THE FL COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING, ADDITIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL
AGAIN BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS CLOSER
TO THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE, DECREASING INTO UPPER 20S/
LOWER 30S MOVING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST AL AND ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST GA. THIS WOULD AGAIN RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA FOR CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH ECENS AND
ITS MORE ROBUST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER TN VALLEY MORE BULLISH
COMPARED TO THE GEFS. POPS OF 20-40% SUFFICE FOR NOW, HIGHEST
NORTHWEST OF THE FL BIG BEND, WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS/DROUGHT
IMPLICATIONS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION AT THE
BOTTOM. CANNOT RULE OUT STRONG STORMS, WITH A SMALL NUMBER OF
ENSEMBLES HINTING AT THIS, AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND
30 KT AND AT LEAST SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY, GENERALLY
WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT RIVERS. OTHERWISE, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND, ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
MVFR TO IFR VSBYS COULD IMPACT TERMINALS TLH AND VLD, THERE'S
CURRENTLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS. TO THE NORTH, ACROSS
DHN AND ABY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW MORNING, FOG WILL DISPERSE AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
REDUCED AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING, BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE, WITH SEAS BUILDING 2 TO 3 FEET. WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED UNTIL SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET ON MONDAY. AS SUCH,
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION BEGINNING TONIGHT
TO THE WEST OF APALACHICOLA, THEN EAST OF APALACHICOLA ON SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A MOIST AND RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS MOVES
OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF APALACHEE BAY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY, PATCHY MARITIME FOG IS POSSIBLE. MORE TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST
AND A LOW CENTER APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THURSDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS INCREASING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
BRISK WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO DISPERSIONS ON THE HIGHER SIDE, BUT NOT EXPECTED
TO BE CRITICALLY HIGH, ALONG WITH MUCH HIGHER AFTERNOON RH COMPARED
TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS (GENERALLY IN THE 50S). THE DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH RH TANKING TO AROUND 20% MOVING NORTHWARD OF
THE FL BORDER FURTHER INTO SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHWEST GA, BUT RISING
THROUGH THE 30S AND 40S IN THE FL COUNTIES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF
COAST. NORTHERLY 20 FT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, SO THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE EASIER FIRE STARTS GIVEN THE LOW RH, LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE LIGHT
NORTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, DISPERSIONS WILL BE
FAIR AT BEST, AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF LOWER VALUES.
ON TUESDAY, RH VALUES MAY DIP INTO THE 30S AGAIN IN SOUTHEAST AL
AND SOUTHWEST GA, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
AT THIS TIME. DISPERSIONS MAY IMPROVE TO FAIR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS IS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES GENERALLY WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA
AND FLINT RIVERS. BUT THE CHANCE FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO PUT A
DENT IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT IS LOW.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINS IN SEVERE (D2) TO EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST US DROUGHT MONITOR. THIS IS RESULTING IN
STREAMFLOWS OF BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DESPITE INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT
RIVERS, FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PUT A DENT IN THE
DROUGHT UNLESS THEY REACH THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF THE ENSEMBLES,
WHICH IS ONLY AROUND A 20% CHANCE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 78 53 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 75 61 76 58 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 77 54 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 77 53 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 78 51 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 78 53 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 72 60 74 60 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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