522
FXUS62 KTAE 160709
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
209 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1213 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
- SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD USE CAUTION THROUGH TONIGHT AS
ELEVATED WESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHER SEAS. ADDITIONALLY, THESE
WILL BRING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST
FACING BEACHES.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA FOR
CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. USE CAUTION WITH OUTDOOR
FLAMES AND FOLLOW LOCAL OFFICIALS REGARDING ANY BURN BANS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT, BUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE A
BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED 850MB FLOW SHOULD ALLOW BREEZY CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20 MPH ARE LIKELY
TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA CLOSER TO THE CORE OF
THE STRONGER 850MB FLOW. THIS INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO ALLOW WARMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 AND
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THIS SHOULD TAME SOME OF THE ELEVATED
FIRE CONCERNS, BUT CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN GIVEN WIDESPREAD
DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
FOR TONIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
MORE CONFINED TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT LIMITS FOG OPPORTUNITIES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA,
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, AND THE PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AND FORECAST CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE CONTINUED
DROUGHT, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AND OVERNIGHT FOG. THERE
IS SOME HOPE FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION, BUT ENSEMBLES AT THIS POINT
PAINT A FAIRLY UNCERTAIN PICTURE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IN THE SHORT TERM MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FRONT, CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DEVELOP AND THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR EASIER FIRE STARTS. SOME LOW HUMIDITY
COULD STICK AROUND INTO TUESDAY AND KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ELEVATED.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WARM ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW 80S RETURN AS SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS.
WHILE NO RAIN IS FORECAST UNTIL THE WEEKEND, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MAKE A GRADUAL COMEBACK AND DAILY CHANCES FOR FOG IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND MORNING CAN BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. FOG IS A CONCERN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR KTLH AND
KVLD. FARTHER NORTH, A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO SWING OVER
KDHN AND KABY AND MAY CREATE A BIT OF LLWS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS THE INVERSION
BEGINS TO LIFT AND MIX OUT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL
TAF SITE BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY BREEZE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE INTO THIS MORNING AND INTO THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE, WITH SEAS BUILDING 2 TO 3 FEET. WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET ON MONDAY.
AS SUCH, SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WEST OF
APALACHICOLA THROUGH TODAY. AS A MOIST AND RELATIVELY WARM AIR
MASS MOVES OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF APALACHEE BAY LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY MONDAY, PATCHY MARITIME FOG IS POSSIBLE. MORE
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH
CENTER MOVES EAST AND A LOW CENTER APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THURSDAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS INCREASING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1213 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
BRISK WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO DISPERSIONS ON THE HIGHER SIDE, BUT THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE CRITICALLY HIGH, ALONG WITH MUCH HIGHER AFTERNOON RH
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS (GENERALLY IN THE 50S). THE DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH RH TANKING TO AROUND 20% MOVING
NORTHWARD OF THE FL BORDER FURTHER INTO SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHWEST
GA, BUT RISING THROUGH THE 30S AND 40S IN THE FL COUNTIES SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE GULF COAST. NORTHERLY 20 FT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, SO THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE EASIER FIRE STARTS GIVEN THE LOW RH, LEADING TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GIVEN THE LIGHT NORTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON,
DISPERSIONS WILL BE FAIR AT BEST, AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME POCKETS
OF LOWER VALUES. ON TUESDAY, RH VALUES MAY DIP INTO THE 30S AGAIN IN
SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHWEST GA, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME. DISPERSIONS MAY IMPROVE TO FAIR BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS
IS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES GENERALLY WEST OF THE
APALACHICOLA AND FLINT RIVERS. BUT THE CHANCE FOR THIS PRECIPITATION
TO PUT A DENT IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT IS LOW.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1213 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINS IN SEVERE (D2) TO EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST US DROUGHT MONITOR. THIS IS RESULTING IN
STREAMFLOWS OF BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DESPITE INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT
RIVERS, FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PUT A DENT IN THE
DROUGHT GIVEN THAT EVEN THE 90TH PERCENTILE (10% CHANCE OF
HAPPENING) RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 80 56 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 76 59 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 79 52 76 47 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 79 48 75 43 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 80 51 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 78 57 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 75 60 74 58 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...LF/DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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