880
FXUS62 KTAE 162308
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
608 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 606 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA FOR
CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. USE CAUTION WITH OUTDOOR
FLAMES AND FOLLOW LOCAL OFFICIALS REGARDING ANY BURN BANS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 606 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
OTHER THAN THE INCLUSION OF A BIT OF FOG ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND, THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK W/ NO CHANGES NEEDED.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AS WE BECOME POST-FRONTAL. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM
THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LEADING TO PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS. BY MID-WEEK WE'LL SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW START TO INCREASE,
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND WITH EACH PASSING DAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RIDGING
OVERHEAD REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEAR NIL.
OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT
IMPACTS, IF ANY, THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FOR THE REGION. BE SURE TO
CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WARM UP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT
SWINGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A BIT OF
FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TERMINALS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON MONDAY, AND MORE TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST AND A LOW CENTER
APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
BY THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
BRISK WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS THE REST OF TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO DISPERSIONS ON THE HIGHER SIDE, BUT THEY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE CRITICALLY HIGH, ALONG WITH MUCH HIGHER AFTERNOON
RH COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS (GENERALLY IN THE 50S). THE
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH RH TANKING TO AROUND 20% MOVING NORTHWARD
OF THE FL BORDER FURTHER INTO SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHWEST GA, BUT
RISING THROUGH THE 30S AND 40S IN THE FL COUNTIES SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE GULF COAST. NORTHERLY 20 FT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, SO THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE EASIER FIRE STARTS GIVEN THE LOW RH, LEADING TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GIVEN THE LIGHT NORTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON,
DISPERSIONS WILL BE FAIR AT BEST, AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME POCKETS
OF LOWER VALUES. ON TUESDAY, RH VALUES MAY DIP INTO THE 30S AGAIN IN
SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHWEST GA, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME. DISPERSIONS MAY IMPROVE TO FAIR BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NIL, DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE PERSIST AND/OR WORSEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 56 79 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 59 78 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 52 76 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 49 75 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 52 77 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 57 80 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 60 74 59 73 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ TONIGHT FOR
FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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