622
FXUS62 KTAE 170623
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
123 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA FOR
CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. USE CAUTION WITH OUTDOOR
FLAMES AND FOLLOW LOCAL OFFICIALS REGARDING ANY BURN BANS.
- NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND/OR GET WORSE ACROSS
THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS TRAVERSING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. AS OF 1 AM ET, THE FRONT EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM TIFTON,
GEORGIA TO TROY, ALABAMA AND WAS MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH INTO GULF WATERS BY TONIGHT AND
BRING MUCH DRIER AIR WITH IT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA COUNTIES. THE DRIER AIR WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TO THESE AREAS, BUT MORE CRITICAL CONCERNS ARE NOT LIKELY
TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS.
REGARDLESS, GIVEN RECENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS PLEASE EXERCISE
CONSIDERABLE CAUTION IF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES INVOLVE ANY FLAMES.
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S AND THE LOW 50S ALONG THE
COASTLINE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO AND EAST OF THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME EAST AND
SOUTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STABLE
CONDITIONS, EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOG IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN DOESN'T LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE WEEKEND,
BUT MODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN PESSIMISTIC
TOWARDS ANY SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT-RELIEVING RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY,
RAIN CHANCES HAVE SLOWLY DECREASED FROM WHAT GUIDANCE WAS
ADVERTISING A FEW DAYS AGO. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THE FORECAST
EVOLVES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
A BACKDOOR FRONT FINISHES PUSHING THRU THE FL BIG BEND & PANHANDLE
OVERNIGHT WITH LGT/VRB WINDS AND A DRIER AIRMASS UNFAVORABLE FOR FOG
IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER, THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
INVOF OF TLH/ECP PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL ABOUT 10Z.
RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO MFVR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT A PREVAILING NE
WIND AOB 5 KTS THIS MORNING-AFTN WITH SOME PASSING MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TODAY, AND MORE TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST AND A LOW CENTER
APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY THURSDAY. ONLY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEAR-SHORE MARINE FOG AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
THE PROBABILITIES WOULD BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE APALACHEE BAY WHERE
COOLER SHELF WATERS COULD MAKE FOG DEVELOPMENT EASIER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. FOR MUCH OF OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES, THE DRY AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY THE TIME WE HIT OUR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS DUE
TO CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (RH) AROUND 17-23%. LIGHT
WINDS WILL KEEP MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FROM DEVELOPING.
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
BE LOW AS WELL BUT THE TIMING OF THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAKES
THE RH FORECAST MORE UNCERTAIN. A FASTER TIMING OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING COULD YIELD RHS IN THE UPPER 20% RANGE, BUT IF IT IS SLOWER
IT WOULD MEAN MIN RHS MORE IN THE LOWER 30% RANGE. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 8 MPH WILL PREVAIL.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY ON
TUESDAY AND THEN SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW A MODERATING TREND IN AFTERNOON RHS, BUT THIS
INCREASE IN RHS AND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW BETTER OVERNIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES. WETTING RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AND THE ONLY CHANCE AT RAIN LIKELY DOESN'T
ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ZERO, DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE PERSIST AND/OR WORSEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 78 50 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 78 56 77 59 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 76 48 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 74 44 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 76 46 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 81 50 82 51 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 73 58 73 58 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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