847
FXUS62 KTAE 171913
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
213 PM EST MON NOV 17 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST MON NOV 17 2025
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA FOR
CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. USE CAUTION WITH OUTDOOR
FLAMES AND FOLLOW LOCAL OFFICIALS REGARDING ANY BURN BANS.
- NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND/OR GET WORSE ACROSS
THE REGION.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST MON NOV 17 2025
FOLLOWING TODAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING ESTABLISHES OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL INCREASE TO THE LOW-MID 80S BY LATE WEEK, WITH
NIGHTTIME MINIMUM TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WHICH ARE BOTH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITHOUT ELEVATED WINDS AND
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS, FIRE RISK WILL BE LIMITED. STILL,
WITH ANTECEDENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS IT IS IMPORTANT TO EXERCISE
CAUTION WITH ANY OUTDOOR FLAMES AS FUELS REMAIN EXTREMELY DRY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH
ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP AND DIP SOUTH INTO OUR REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR BOTH HOW AMPLIFIED THIS TROUGH WILL BE AND HOW MUCH RAIN IT MAY
BRING HAS GENERALLY TRENDED DOWN OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. FOLLOWING
THESE TRENDS, IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. POPS FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING ARE
CURRENTLY LIMITED TO ABOUT 10-20% FOR OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES AND
UP TO 30% FOR OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES THAT ARE CLOSER TO THE AXIS
OF GREATEST FORCING. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY FILTER IN FOLLOWING THE
TROUGH'S PASSAGE, AND THUS DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OR BE
EXASPERATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST MON NOV 17 2025
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
DRY AIR MASS WILL PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING, EXCEPT
POSSIBLY AT ECP.
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR ECP WILL BE IF A WEAK SEABREEZE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON PUSHES SHALLOW MOISTURE AS FAR INLAND
AS ECP, IN WHICH CASE FOG WOULD BECOME A POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GO CALM AROUND
SUNSET. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST MON NOV 17 2025
LIGHT AND GENTLE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST
AND A LOW CENTER APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY,
SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE. ONLY
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR- SHORE MARINE
FOG LATER IN THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THE PROBABILITIES
WOULD BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE APALACHEE BAY WHERE COOLER SHELF
WATERS COULD MAKE FOG DEVELOPMENT EASIER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST MON NOV 17 2025
FOR MUCH OF OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES, THE DRY AIR BEHIND
TODAY'S COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY THE TIME WE HIT
OUR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
CONCERNS DUE TO CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (RH) AROUND
17-23%. LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FROM DEVELOPING. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES,
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW AS WELL. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
5 TO 8 MPH WILL PREVAIL.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY
ON TUESDAY AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A MODERATING TREND IN AFTERNOON RHS,
BUT THIS INCREASE IN RHS AND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW BETTER OVERNIGHT
FOG POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES. WETTING
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AND THE ONLY CHANCE AT RAIN LIKELY
DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST MON NOV 17 2025
RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ZERO, DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE PERSIST AND/OR WORSEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 50 80 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 55 77 57 78 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 48 79 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 43 78 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 46 79 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 49 81 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 58 72 57 74 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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