234
FXUS62 KTAE 181121
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
621 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 621 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
AND ONGOING DROUGHT EXPECTED ACROSS OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
COUNTIES. USE CAUTION WITH OUTDOOR FLAMES AND FOLLOW LOCAL
OFFICIALS REGARDING ANY BURN BANS.
- NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND/OR GET WORSE ACROSS
THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF LOW
HUMIDITIES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES.
GIVEN RECENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER AFTERNOON
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS WILL
PRECLUDE MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE CONCERNS FROM DEVELOPING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ARE FORECAST.
GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, LIGHT WINDS, AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY RETURNING, PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
WARM, ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING. MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE CONTINUED DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF FOG IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER AND LOWER
WITH POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL MEAN
LITTLE TO NO RELIEF OF THE EXPANSIVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE FOR CONTINUED VFR CONDS THIS FCST
PACKAGE. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 5 KTS AFTER SUNRISE
THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTN. TOWARDS THE TAIL END
OF THIS TAF CYCLE, FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP AS WINDS GO CALM WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT ECP, FOLLOWED BY DHN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
LIGHT AND GENTLE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST
AND A LOW CENTER APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY,
SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE. ONLY
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR-SHORE MARINE
FOG LATER IN THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THE PROBABILITIES
WOULD BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE APALACHEE BAY WHERE COOLER SHELF
WATERS COULD MAKE FOG DEVELOPMENT EASIER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
AREA, THE LOWEST WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
COUNTIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 20-25% IN THESE
AREAS WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND BIG
BEND COUNTIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO LOW DISPERSIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IN
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
LEADING TO SLOWLY INCREASING AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON.
WHILE THIS SHOULD LOWER FIRE CONCERNS SOME, IT WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR FOG IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SOME INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THE PROBABILITIES FOR
WETTING RAINS WILL REMAIN LOW.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ZERO, DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE PERSIST AND/OR WORSEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 79 52 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 77 58 78 59 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 79 54 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 78 50 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 79 50 83 54 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 81 50 83 51 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 72 57 73 59 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page