616
FXUS62 KTAE 181836
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
136 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 124 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
- FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS LINGERING INTO THE
MORNING COMMUTE. WHERE FOG MIXES WITH SMOKE, EXPECTED VERY
RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES IN LOCALIZED SPOTS. USE CAUTION IF
DRIVING DURING LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING HOURS. SLOW DOWN,
LEAVE EXTRA SPACE, AND TURN ON HEADLIGHTS.
- NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND/OR GET WORSE ACROSS
THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
DEEP RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR A SURFACE HIGH TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
OVERHEAD BRINGING CALM CONDITIONS TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW. LOW
HUMIDITIES AND PWATS WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
WILL GENERATE WARMER TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
BEHIND THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD, VERY SLOWLY BRINGING BACK
MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE REGION. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE APPARENT DUE TO CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
CALM WINDS AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE LESSENS THE CONCERN
SLIGHTLY.
CALM WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING TONIGHT CAN ENABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT MAY BRING PATCHY FOG TO PARTS OF THE REGION,
DECREASING VISIBILITY, TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES IT WAY TOWARD THE DISTRICT, MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. RADIATION FOG AND DROUGHT
THREAT WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, HIGHER MOISTURE WILL
BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH STRONGER WINDS MIXING THE LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH FOR RADIATION FOG TO BE LESS OF A CONCERN. ANY
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER. A LOWERING TREND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING LITTLE TO NO RELIEF TO THE EXPANSIVE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND, POST- FRONTAL, DRY AIR WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A DRY AIR MASS IS IN
PLACE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL START TO BRING AN INCREASE IN SHALLOW MOISTURE OFF THE
GULF, MOST NOTABLY TO THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THIS WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW CIGS/VSBYS LATE TONIGHT UNTIL A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, WITH DHN BEING THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE
LIFR CONDITIONS. FURTHER EAST, TLH IS LEAST LIKELY TO GET SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR LOW STRATUS ON WED MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 124 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
LIGHT AND GENTLE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST
AND A LOW CENTER APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY,
SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE. ONLY
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR-SHORE MARINE
FOG LATER IN THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THE PROBABILITIES
WOULD BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE APALACHEE BAY WHERE COOLER SHELF
WATERS COULD RESULT IN SOME SEA FOG FORMATION LATER IN THE WEEK.
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 124 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. A SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND OVER THE EMERALD COAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE INLAND
PARTS OF THE FL BIG BEND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GA WITH 40S AND ABOVE
FARTHER WEST AND NEAR THE COAST. LOW DISPERSIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
NEAR THE COAST WITH FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS INLAND.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, TRANSPORT WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASING RH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT THURSDAY, BUT INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH ON
FRIDAY. DISPERSIONS WILL BE LOW NEAR THE COAST STILL ON THURSDAY,
BUT WILL BE GOOD INLAND. DISPERSIONS BECOME GOOD AREAWIDE FRIDAY
WITH SOME HIGH DISPERSIONS OVER SOUTH GEORGIA.
GIVEN THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, FIRES COULD STILL EASILY
START AND SPREAD DESPITE THE INCREASING HUMIDITY.
FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 124 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ZERO, DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE PERSIST AND/OR WORSEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 79 50 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 77 57 78 59 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 78 54 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 78 51 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 79 50 83 54 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 81 48 83 51 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 72 56 74 58 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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