215
FXUS62 KTAE 200112
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
812 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 812 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
- FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS LINGERING INTO THE
MORNING COMMUTE. WHERE FOG MIXES WITH SMOKE, EXPECT VERY
RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES IN LOCALIZED SPOTS. USE CAUTION IF
DRIVING DURING LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING HOURS. SLOW DOWN,
LEAVE EXTRA SPACE, AND TURN ON HEADLIGHTS.
- NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND/OR GET WORSE ACROSS
THE REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 812 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEAR NECESSARY.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING ON THURSDAY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREAS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST IN DENSE
FOG FORMING. HOWEVER, THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH AND EAST AS WELL, AND AN EXPANSION OF THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS IS THE FOG
POTENTIAL. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF DENSE FOG. HREF
PROBABILITIES OF DENSE FOG ARE AROUND 50-80% FOR ALL AREAS WEST OF
THE I-75 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST LATE
THIS EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA EITHER LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS LOOK SIMILAR, THOUGH THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR FOG SHIFT TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CONCERN IS WHERE
FOG MIXES WITH SMOKE FROM ANY ONGOING FIRES. THIS COULD CAUSE
VISIBILITY TO DROP TO NEAR ZERO IN VERY LOCALIZED SPOTS.
IF YOU'RE OUT AND ABOUT LATE AT NIGHT OR DURING YOUR MORNING
COMMUTE, SLOW DOWN, INCREASE FOLLOWING DISTANCES, AND USE YOUR
LOW-BEAM HEADLIGHTS, EVEN AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE, WARM DAYS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY WITH ONLY A LOW
CHANCE OF A SHOWER (20% OR SO). PWATS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE (1.3
TO 1.5 INCHES), AND THE PARENT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DAMPENING AS IT DOES
SO. FOR MOST, THE ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THERE
WON'T BE MUCH TEMPERATURE CHANGE, THOUGH THE AIR BECOMES SOMEWHAT
DRIER. HIGHS EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVE TUESDAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY ON QUALITY OF
MOISTURE AND AMOUNT OF FORCING THIS SYSTEM HAVE REMAIN UNCERTAIN
THIS FAR OUT. WE HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS NEXT SYSTEM
LEADING UP TO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
VFR CURRENTLY BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETEORIATE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS DUE TO FOG. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE
AT DHN AND ECP WHERE LIFR CONDS ARE LIKELY WITH SOME POSSIBILITY
OF VLIFR AT TIMES FROM 10-14Z. FURTHER EAST AT TLH AND ABY,
CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH BUT DO EXPECT IFR WITH TEMPO LIFR
AROUND THE SAME TIMEFRAME. AT VLD, PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER AND
EXPECTING TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AROUND DAWN. CONDS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AROUND 15-16Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS
SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH GENTLE BREEZES SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS NEAR THE BEACHES AND ACROSS
APALACHEE BAY, SOME PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES GIVEN
THE RICH MOISTURE MOVING IN. OVER THE WEEKEND, GENTLE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED, BUT WINDS DO CLOCK AROUND OUT OF
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TRANSPORT WINDS ON THURSDAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
AROUND 3,000-4,000 FT WILL LEAD TO LOW DISPERSIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS, THUS
DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIR TO GOOD BOTH AFTERNOONS. MINIMUM
RH FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RISE TO THE 50S AND 60S.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS ON SATURDAY ARE VERY LOW (LESS THAN 5%).
FOG, DENSE AT TIMES, IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. FOG MIXING WITH SMOKE WILL RESTRICT
VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO IN LOCALIZED SPOTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. EVEN IF A FEW
SHOWERS MATERIALIZE SATURDAY, THEY WILL BE FEW, FAR BETWEEN, AND
LIGHT. THUS, DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST AND/OR
WORSEN. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT DROUGHT LOCALLY, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 56 84 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 59 78 61 77 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 58 83 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 57 83 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 56 85 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 52 84 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 59 74 61 74 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ TONIGHT TO 10
AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR FLZ007>016-108-112-114-115-
326-426.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ735.
UPDATE...DVD
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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