461
FXUS62 KTAE 202341
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
641 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 629 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
- FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THE NEXT 2 MORNINGS, SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. EXERCISE CAUTION IF COMMUTING
UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS. ANY FOG MIXING WITH SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES
MAY GREATLY RESTRICT VISIBILITY IN LOCALIZED SPOTS.
- DROUGHT PERSISTS AND/OR WORSENS WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
FOG REMAINS THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. FOG
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, STARTING NEAR
THE COAST, THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME OF
THE FOG COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS, AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN ON LATER SHIFTS. OTHERWISE, LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.
OTHERWISE, FRIDAY CONTINUES OUR TREND OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. FOG WILL BE LESS EXPANSIVE FRIDAY
NIGHT, MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. THIS IS DUE TO WINDS
INCREASING SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER OUR
WESTERN AREAS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY SKIRT THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WE ARE AT THE TAIL END OF
A WEAKENING SYSTEM. NOT MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED, IF ANY, IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
RATHER QUIETLY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT. A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE, BUT CHANCES ARE AROUND 10%.
TEMPERATURES DON'T CHANGE MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT EITHER WITH HIGHS
STAYING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND
LOWS IN THE 50S.
BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS A RUN AT OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TO THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THUS, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT BEST ARE EXPECTED WITH RAIN CHANCES AROUND 30-40% BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
AT THIS JUNCTURE. UNFORTUNATELY, NO DROUGHT RELIEF IS EXPECTED WITH
ANY OF OUR SYSTEMS DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
MAIN CHANGES WITH THE 00Z TAFS WAS TO FINE TUNE VSBYS AND
TIMING WITH RESPECT TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG BY FRIDAY AM
AND LIFTING CIGS MORE SLOWLY ON FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. IN PARTICULAR, A PERIOD OF
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BEGINNING ~05Z AT ECP AND ~10Z AT DHN/TLH;
CONFIDENCE HIGHEST AT DHN/ECP. RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF SOME TOWARD ABY/VLD WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A
PERIOD OF LIFR AROUND SUNRISE AT ABY AND A PERIOD OF MVFR
AROUND SUNRISE AT VLD. AS MENTIONED A GRADUAL LIFT AT ALL
TERMINALS IN CIGS/VSBYS BEGINNING ~13-16Z WITH A RETURN
TO VFR ~16-18Z, ALTHOUGH THAT TIMING MAY NEED FINE TUNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
SOME PATCHY SEA FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE COOLER
NEARSHORE WATERS AS WELL AS APALACHEE BAY. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE SOUTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA
WITH THE FRONT, ONLY A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BY SUNDAY. WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST BY MONDAY THEN SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASING TO MODERATE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS
REMAIN FAVORABLE AT AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY TO
AROUND 10-15 MPH, THEN INCREASE FURTHER ON SATURDAY TO 10-20 MPH
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 3,000-4,000 FT
BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE WIREGRASS ON SATURDAY. THUS,
GOOD DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST BOTH DAYS WITH
SOME HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
ON SATURDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S BOTH DAYS WITH
EXCELLENT RECOVERY OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR A WETTING RAIN ON SATURDAY
REMAIN VERY LOW (LESS THAN 5%).
ON SUNDAY, TRANSPORT WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AROUND 5-10 MPH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS EXPECTED. MIN RH
VALUES DROP TO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FOG, DENSE AT TIMES, IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOG MIXING WITH SMOKE WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO IN
LOCALIZED SPOTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE AREA.
EVEN OUR REASONABLE HIGH-END TOTALS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE AROUND
0.50-0.75 INCHES, WHICH WILL UNFORTUNATELY NOT HELP THE DROUGHT
SITUATION.
AS OF TODAY, THE US DROUGHT MONITOR NOW HAS THE AREA AROUND THE
FLORIDA-GEORGIA STATE LINE OUTLINED IN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4),
WHICH IS THE HIGHEST CATEGORY ON THE DROUGHT MONITOR. THIS IS THE
FIRST TIME SINCE THE 2011-2012 WINTER THAT ANY PART OF OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY HAS BEEN OUTLINED IN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 84 56 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 78 61 77 66 / 0 0 0 10
DOTHAN 83 55 81 63 / 0 0 0 10
ALBANY 83 56 82 62 / 0 0 0 10
VALDOSTA 84 55 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 84 54 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 73 60 74 64 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page