410
FXUS62 KTAE 210535
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1235 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
- DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AL AND EASTERN FL
PANHANDLE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST GA AND THE FL BIG BEND WITH IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
THROUGH MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
- DROUGHT PERSISTS AND/OR WORSENS WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
FOG REMAINS THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. FOG
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, STARTING NEAR
THE COAST, THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME OF
THE FOG COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS, AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN ON LATER SHIFTS. OTHERWISE, LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.
OTHERWISE, FRIDAY CONTINUES OUR TREND OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. FOG WILL BE LESS EXPANSIVE FRIDAY
NIGHT, MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. THIS IS DUE TO WINDS
INCREASING SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER OUR
WESTERN AREAS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY SKIRT THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WE ARE AT THE TAIL END OF
A WEAKENING SYSTEM. NOT MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED, IF ANY, IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
RATHER QUIETLY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT. A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE, BUT CHANCES ARE AROUND 10%.
TEMPERATURES DON'T CHANGE MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT EITHER WITH HIGHS
STAYING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND
LOWS IN THE 50S.
BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS A RUN AT OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TO THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THUS, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT BEST ARE EXPECTED WITH RAIN CHANCES AROUND 30-40% BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
AT THIS JUNCTURE. UNFORTUNATELY, NO DROUGHT RELIEF IS EXPECTED WITH
ANY OF OUR SYSTEMS DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING ECP AND WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT DHN/TLH. RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SOME TOWARD ABY/VLD WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN A PERIOD OF LIFR AROUND SUNRISE AT ABY AND A PERIOD OF MVFR
AROUND SUNRISE AT VLD. A GRADUAL LIFT AT ALL TERMINALS IN
CIGS/VSBYS BEGINNING ~13-16Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR ~16-18Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 935 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
DENSE FOG WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO
BEACH TO THE OCHLOCKNEE RIVER AND WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED AROUND
SAINT ANDREWS BAY, SAINT JOSEPH BAY, APALACHICOLA BAY, AND SAINT
GEORGE ISLAND SOUND. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 10 AM ET/9 AM
CT. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVER THE MARINE AREA WITH THE FRONT, ONLY A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTH BY SUNDAY. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST BY MONDAY
THEN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO MODERATE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS REMAIN FAVORABLE AT AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY TO
AROUND 10-15 MPH, THEN INCREASE FURTHER ON SATURDAY TO 10-20 MPH
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 3,000-4,000 FT
BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE WIREGRASS ON SATURDAY. THUS,
GOOD DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST BOTH DAYS WITH
SOME HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
ON SATURDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S BOTH DAYS WITH
EXCELLENT RECOVERY OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR A WETTING RAIN ON SATURDAY
REMAIN VERY LOW (LESS THAN 5%).
ON SUNDAY, TRANSPORT WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AROUND 5-10 MPH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS EXPECTED. MIN RH
VALUES DROP TO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FOG, DENSE AT TIMES, IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOG MIXING WITH SMOKE WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO IN
LOCALIZED SPOTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE AREA.
EVEN OUR REASONABLE HIGH-END TOTALS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE AROUND
0.50-0.75 INCHES, WHICH WILL UNFORTUNATELY NOT HELP THE DROUGHT
SITUATION.
AS OF TODAY, THE US DROUGHT MONITOR NOW HAS THE AREA AROUND THE
FLORIDA-GEORGIA STATE LINE OUTLINED IN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4),
WHICH IS THE HIGHEST CATEGORY ON THE DROUGHT MONITOR. THIS IS THE
FIRST TIME SINCE THE 2011-2012 WINTER THAT ANY PART OF OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY HAS BEEN OUTLINED IN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 81 61 82 61 / 0 0 10 0
PANAMA CITY 76 66 79 62 / 0 10 20 0
DOTHAN 79 64 83 57 / 0 10 10 0
ALBANY 82 62 83 55 / 0 10 20 0
VALDOSTA 83 59 83 59 / 0 0 10 0
CROSS CITY 82 56 80 61 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 73 64 76 63 / 0 0 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ007>015-027-028-112-114-115-118-127-128-326-426.
GA...NONE.
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ730-735-752-755.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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