200
FXUS62 KTAE 211847
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
147 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 141 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
- DENSE FOG IS ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND, WITH IMPACTS TO TRAVEL THROUGH MID TO LATE SATURDAY
MORNING.
- DROUGHT PERSISTS AND/OR WORSENS WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
FOG REMAINS THE MAIN STORY AGAIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FOG REMAINS
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE, BUT IT'LL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
MOVES OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
SPEAKING OF CLOUD COVER, A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE FROM
THOSE CLOUDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GRANTED, IT'S ONLY ABOUT A 20%
CHANCE, BUT IT'S BETTER THAN THE ZERO WE'VE HAD FOR A WHILE NOW.
LOOKING OPTIMISTICALLY, IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT TODAY'S SHOWERS
ACROSS ALABAMA HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT, SO THAT GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO
AROUND 20% DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGS CLEARS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHAVES TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO, WHICH PUTS MUCH OF THE AREA
CLOSER TO 80 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AS OPPOSED TO THE MID-80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS, THOUGH, WILL TUMBLE BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BRINGING WITH IT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN! COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE WORKS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR
THANKSGIVING WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE
NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON AND LOWS NEAR 40
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.
ALOFT, AN H5 RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF INTO
THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOSEY EAST SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS KEEPS OUR AREA DRY AND WARM SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND
TUESDAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVES OUT OF CANADA AND SWINGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL PUSH THE H5 RIDGE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO NEAR OUR AREA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE ULTIMATE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM, SO KEPT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY BETWEEN 20-40% THIS
FAR OUT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS SE ALABAMA AND LESSER
CHANCES ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
THE DENSE FOG FROM THIS MORNING HAS LIFTED, LEAVING US WITH
CLOUDY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER NIGHT/MORNING OF FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
AROUND 15Z TOMORROW. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED REGARDING
BOTH VSBYS AND CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL
SHIFT WESTERLY BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 141 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
POCKETS OF DENSE FOG REMAIN ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR APALACHEE BAY, SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LIGHT TO
GENTLE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONT. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST BY MONDAY THEN
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO MODERATE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. SEAS REMAIN FAVORABLE AT AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 141 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS OF 2-3K FT ARE
FORECAST THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE INCREASING TO 4-5K FT FOLLOWING THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MINRH VALUES OF 50-60 PERCENT ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DROPPING TO BETWEEN 35-40 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 141 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
THERE ARE LOW (20%) CHANCES FOR RAIN SATURDAY AND LOW-MEDIUM (20-
40%) CHANCES WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID, LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN OUR REASONABLE HIGH-END TOTALS
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE AROUND 0.50-1.0 INCHES, WHICH WILL
UNFORTUNATELY NOT ALLEVIATE THE DROUGHT SITUATION.
AS OF THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 2025, THE US DROUGHT MONITOR NOW HAS
THE AREA AROUND THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA STATE LINE OUTLINED IN
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4), WHICH IS THE HIGHEST CATEGORY ON THE
DROUGHT MONITOR. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE 2011-2012 WINTER
THAT ANY PART OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY HAS BEEN OUTLINED IN
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 62 82 62 81 / 0 20 0 0
PANAMA CITY 66 79 62 78 / 20 20 0 0
DOTHAN 64 82 57 78 / 20 20 10 0
ALBANY 62 82 57 78 / 10 20 0 0
VALDOSTA 60 82 60 80 / 0 10 0 0
CROSS CITY 56 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 66 76 63 76 / 0 20 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ730-751-755.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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