723
FXUS62 KTAE 221718
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1218 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
- DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND WILL HAVE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
THROUGH MID MORNING.
- DROUGHT PERSISTS AND/OR WORSENS WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 912 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ADJUSTED T, TD,
APPARENT T, RH, WIND AND WINDGUST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ARE STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER, THUS CURRENT POP
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
TONIGHT, THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL VEER WINDS TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST, COUPLED WITH WINDS OF 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
MITIGATE THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, MINIMAL
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WILL PREVENT THIS FRONT FROM BEING ANYTHING MORE
THAN POP-UP SHOWERS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DENSE FOG ACROSS
THE FL BIG BEND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AFTER SUNRISE.
WINDS SHIFT TO BEING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY TO BEING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TODAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK,
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO THIS
WEEKEND'S SHORTWAVE, FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM PVA WILL BE MINIMAL.
FORCING MAY PRIMARILY COME FROM BEING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. IT'S STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN
HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE, BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE
FAVORS LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. MAKE SURE TO COME BACK
FOR UPDATES.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
UNTIL THE MID-WEEK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY FRIDAY DAYTIME HIGHS
DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SIMILAR TREND IN THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WITH TEMPS INITIALLY IN THE 50S DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S BY FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED THIS AFTN, WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST SFC
WINDS OF 5-10 KTS /AND SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS/ OCCURING AT THE
TERMINALS. ISOLATED LIGHT -SHRA NOTED WEST OF KTLH AND HAVE
THEREFORE ELECTED TO INSERT A VCSH AT KTLH. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND WILL AMEND FOR -SHRA/VCSH IF WARRANTED. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SFC WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG, THOUGH
HOW DENSE IT WILL GET WILL BE DEPENDENT ON IF WIND SPEEDS CAN
MANAGE TO STAY ABOVE CALM LEVELS. IF SO, ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE
PATCHY LIGHT FOG. IF CALM CONDITIONS SETS IN, IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS
CAN OCCUR ONCE AGAIN. HAVE ELECTED TO NOT ADD A FOG MENTION ATTM,
AND WILL LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFT ASSESS THE SITUATION. HOWEVER,CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH FOR MVFR-IFR CIGS. OTHERWISE, VCSH POSSIBLE AT A FEW
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING BEFORE TURNING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF
THE EAST BY MONDAY THEN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO MODERATE ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS REMAIN FAVORABLE AT
AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY THROUGHOUT TODAY AS
A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS OF 3-4K FT ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING TO 4-5K FT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MINRH VALUES OF 50-60 PERCENT ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DROPPING TO BETWEEN 35-45 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR LESS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THUS, DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL
THEREFORE PERSIST AND/OR WORSEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.
AS OF THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 2025, THE US DROUGHT MONITOR NOW HAS
THE AREA AROUND THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA STATE LINE OUTLINED IN
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4), WHICH IS THE HIGHEST CATEGORY ON THE
DROUGHT MONITOR. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE 2011-2012 WINTER
THAT ANY PART OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY HAS BEEN OUTLINED IN
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 63 80 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 63 78 55 77 / 10 0 0 0
DOTHAN 57 76 49 79 / 10 0 0 0
ALBANY 58 78 50 79 / 10 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 61 80 52 80 / 10 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 62 83 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 64 76 58 73 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...BOWSER
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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