322
FXUS62 KTAE 221813
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
113 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
- ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
BIG BEND TONIGHT.
- RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A MEDIUM (40-60%)
CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG
BEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT FULLY CLEARS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER WEATHER (I.E. LESS FOG) ARRIVES IN ITS
WAKE. TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S TONIGHT
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR 80 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A QUICK LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT'S SHOWER/STORM
POTENTIAL SHOWS FAIRLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS ALONG WITH ABOUT 25-30
KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MUCAPE IS ALSO A TAD ELEVATED AROUND 1000-
1500 J/KG. IF AN UPDRAFT IS ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF, SOME SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE OF THAT
HAPPENING IS VERY LOW, LESS THAN 5%.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
WARM WEATHER AWAITS US TO START THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. A COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
ALONG A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 0.5" ACROSS THE AREA, BUT A LUCKY
FEW MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR MORE OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN. COOLER WEATHER
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING WITH
60S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR LOWS FRIDAY MORNING.
AN H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS
WAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY. IT MOSEYS EAST OVER THE KEYS INTO THE
BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY, OPENING THE DOOR FOR AN H5 SHORTWAVE TO MOVE
OVER MS AND AL. THAT'S TOO FAR AWAY TO GIVE US ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR TUESDAY, BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) IN OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND SE ALABAMA.
A LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WEDNESDAY AND WILL GIVE US AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FROM 24 HOURS AGO, SO WE'RE TRENDING
IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION TO AT LEAST PICK UP A BIT OF MUCH NEEDED
RAIN. HOW MUCH RAIN REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS THE CORRIDOR FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE MORE NORTHWEST OF OUR
AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE HYDRO SECTION, THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
0.25" RANGES FROM 30-40% ACROSS SE ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF TO LESS THAN 10% ONCE YOU GET
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND.
AS FAR AS STORM POTENTIAL GOES, IT'S RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXTENT OF FORCING OVER THE AREA. ON ONE
HAND, WE'LL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
H5 JET. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO BE WELL NORTH
OF OUR AREA. THAT SAID, THERE ARE INDICATIONS THERE COULD BE A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT
COULD ENHANCE THAT TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND OPEN THE
DOOR FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO. THAT POTENTIAL REMAINS QUITE LOW
AT THIS TIME, SO BE SURE TO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES IN THE COMING
DAYS.
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE NOVEMBER, OR THE 60S FOR HIGHS THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO TAKE A TRIP INTO THE 30S THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADD IN SOME WIND AND WIND CHILL VALUES,
OR FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES, ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSER NEAR 30
FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED THIS AFTN, WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST SFC
WINDS OF 5-10 KTS /AND SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS/ OCCURING AT THE
TERMINALS. ISOLATED LIGHT -SHRA NOTED WEST OF KTLH AND HAVE
THEREFORE ELECTED TO INSERT A VCSH AT KTLH. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND WILL AMEND FOR -SHRA/VCSH IF WARRANTED. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SFC WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG, THOUGH
HOW DENSE IT WILL GET WILL BE DEPENDENT ON IF WIND SPEEDS CAN
MANAGE TO STAY ABOVE CALM LEVELS. IF SO, ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE
PATCHY LIGHT FOG. IF CALM CONDITIONS SETS IN, IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS
CAN OCCUR ONCE AGAIN. HAVE ELECTED TO NOT ADD A FOG MENTION ATTM,
AND WILL LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFT ASSESS THE SITUATION. HOWEVER,CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH FOR MVFR-IFR CIGS. OTHERWISE, VCSH POSSIBLE AT A FEW
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL CLOCK WINDS
FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT TO MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY AND
EASTERLY MONDAY. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR
ADVISORY LEVEL DEVELOP FOLLOWING THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT, TURNING SURFACE AND
TRANSPORT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TURNS TRANSPORT WINDS MORE EASTERLY MONDAY AND
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A WETTING RAIN IN A WHILE ON
WEDNESDAY. EVEN THEN, IT'S NOT THE GREATEST OF CHANCES WITH A 30-40%
CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR PANAMA CITY, FL TO ALBANY, GA AND A 10-30% CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
MINRH OF 35-45 PERCENT ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY
FROM THE COAST MONDAY AND 50-60 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. MINRH THEN PLUMMETS TO BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT ON
THANKSGIVING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
A FEW LOCATIONS WERE FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO PICK UP A FEW RAINDROPS
TODAY. HOWEVER, IT'S A DROP IN THE BUCKET FOR WHAT WE NEED TO
ALLEVIATE THE WORSENING DROUGHT SITUATION ACROSS THE REGION.
FORTUNATELY, RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT; UNFORTUNATELY, THERE'S ONLY A 30-40% CHANCE OF MORE THAN
0.25" OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WITH CHANCES DROPPING OFF RAPIDLY THE MORE EAST YOU PROGRESS ACROSS
THE AREA. INTERESTINGLY, THE REASONABLE HIGH-END, OR 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF HAPPENING, TOTALS HAVE ACTUALLY COME UP FROM 24 HOURS AGO
TO AROUND 1.0-1.5 INCHES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE ALABAMA; HOWEVER,
THAT APPEARS TO BE SKEWED A BIT HIGH THANKS TO A FEW MEMBERS OF THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE SHOWING SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE
ALABAMA. MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE ECMWF, GFS, AND CANADIAN
SHOW LESS THAN AN INCH, IF THAT. BUT, SEEING AS WE NEED THE RAIN,
IT'S AT LEAST WORTH MENTIONING AND SOMETHING WE'LL MONITOR AS WE GET
CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.
AS OF THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 2025, THE US DROUGHT MONITOR NOW HAS
THE AREA AROUND THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA STATE LINE OUTLINED IN
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4), WHICH IS THE HIGHEST CATEGORY ON THE
DROUGHT MONITOR. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE 2011-2012 WINTER
THAT ANY PART OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY HAS BEEN OUTLINED IN
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 64 81 54 80 / 20 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 64 78 56 78 / 10 0 0 0
DOTHAN 59 77 51 80 / 20 0 0 0
ALBANY 59 78 50 80 / 20 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 61 81 53 81 / 20 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 63 82 53 82 / 10 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 65 76 60 73 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...BOWSER
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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