132
FXUS62 KTAE 231149
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
649 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 641 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
- PATCHY TO DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION WILL HAVE IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL THROUGH MID MORNING.
- RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED WEDNESDAY WITH A MEDIUM (40-60%)
CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
BIG BEND.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA TODAY WE'LL SEE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION BEHIND IT. LOWER DEW POINTS ADVECT
SOUTHWARD AND NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS LEADING TO PLEASANT WEATHER.
WINDS CLOCK AROUND TO BEING SOUTHERLY AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. DEW POINTS SURGE BACK INTO THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. UNFORTUNATELY, AS MENTIONED IN
PRIOR FORECASTS, FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER, WE'LL BE IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. WHEN COUPLED WITH A LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD AROUND 20-30 KTS, WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A
COUPLE STORMS, BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS APPEAR UNFAVORABLE AT THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE. MESOSCALE DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAYBE BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME SOME OF THESE LIMITING FACTORS, IF WE SEE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IF WE'RE UNDER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER, OR DENSE
FOG THAT LASTS WELL INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS, THEN OUR CHANCES OF
SEEING STORMS WOULD BE VERY LOW.
OVERALL, PRECIP CHANCES LOOK BETTER OUTSIDE OUR AREA TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE REGION
THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL FORCING COULD ALLOW THIS LINE TO
ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION, OR WE COULD SEE THE LINE BEGIN TO FALL
APART ONCE IT STARTS CROSSING OUR SE ALABAMA AND SW GEORGIA
COUNTIES.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WE'LL SEE SOME COLD TEMPERATURES TO END THE
WEEK. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK TO
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. POST-FRONTAL THEY'LL SLIDE
DOWN INTO THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND, INITIALLY
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S, THEY TAKE A DIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
DROPPING INTO THE 30S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
VARIATIONS OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE CURRENTLY
IMPACTING AREA TERMINALS. AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WE'LL START TO SEE CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE'S LOW CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
POSSIBLY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT TLH AND VLD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
MARINE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO
THE SUWANEE RIVER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND MAY BE DENSE,
WITH ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WILL CLOCK WINDS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TODAY TO MORE EASTERLY ON
MONDAY. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR
ADVISORY LEVEL DEVELOP FOLLOWING THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION THIS MORNING, TURNING SURFACE AND
TRANSPORT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TURNS TRANSPORT WINDS MORE EASTERLY MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY
TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A WETTING RAIN IN A WHILE ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN
THEN, IT'S NOT THE GREATEST OF CHANCES WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF A
WETTING RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR PANAMA
CITY, FL TO ALBANY, GA AND A 10-30% CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MINRH OF 35-45
PERCENT ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST
MONDAY AND 50-60 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MINRH THEN PLUMMETS TO BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT ON THANKSGIVING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR LESS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THIS MOSTLY APPLIES TO OUR
NORTHWEST AREAS IN SE ALABAMA AND SW GEORGIA. RAIN AMOUNTS QUICKLY
DROP TO AROUND 0.05 INCHES AS YOU HEAD SOUTH AND EAST FROM THERE.
AS OF THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 2025, THE US DROUGHT MONITOR NOW HAS
THE AREA AROUND THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA STATE LINE OUTLINED IN
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4), WHICH IS THE HIGHEST CATEGORY ON THE
DROUGHT MONITOR. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE 2011-2012 WINTER
THAT ANY PART OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY HAS BEEN OUTLINED IN
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 81 56 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 79 58 77 63 / 0 0 0 10
DOTHAN 78 53 80 57 / 0 0 0 10
ALBANY 79 52 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 81 54 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 82 54 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 77 60 73 63 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ108-112-114.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ115-118-
127-128.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ120>126.
AL...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ730-755.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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