720
FXUS62 KTAE 251152
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
652 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 647 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
- FOG, DENSE AT TIMES, REMAINS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND TOMORROW
MORNING. COVERAGE SHIFTS TO THE FL BIG BEND THROUGH SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY.
- FORMIDABLE COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH-WELCOMED RAINFALL TO THE
DROUGHT-STRICKEN TRI-STATE AREA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, FORECAST AMOUNTS WILL NOT LEAD TO IMPROVEMENT.
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
EXISTS FOR LOCATIONS JUST NORTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAIN THREATS: A TORNADO OR TWO,
DAMAGING GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH, HAIL UP TO 1 INCH.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON THANKSGIVING AND BLACK FRIDAY WITH NEAR
TO BELOW-FREEZING WIND CHILLS THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 226 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
LATE-NIGHT SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL LOW MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAS
BEEN ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IN THE FORM OF LINEAR
BANDS OR CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT
HAS ADEQUATE WIND SHEAR AND FORCING TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION.
WE ARE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY WIDESPREAD LOW-
TO- MID 60S DEW POINTS THANKS TO MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE SW
PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AS
A RESULT, FOGGY WEATHER (DENSE AT TIMES) CONTINUES TO FLOURISH,
THOUGH LOW STRATUS HAS ALSO BEEN PREVALENT THANKS TO SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED LOW- LEVEL WINDS AND THE REMNANTS OF AN ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE PUSHING PAST THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE MID-TO-LATE MORNING THANKS TO DAYTIME HEATING,
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES SOARING TO THE LOW 80S
UNDER A MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS.
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN CREEPING INTO THE WIREGRASS REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN NOTABLY INCREASE TONIGHT. FROM AROUND SUNSET
TOWARDS SUNRISE APPEARS TO BE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY ACROSS THE NW HALF
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA, THOUGH CHANCES OF A TORNADO (<5%),
DAMAGING GUST(S), OR HAIL (<15%) ARE ON THE LOW SIDE, HENCE THE
MARGINAL RISK, LEVEL 1 OF 5. REGARDLESS, MUCH-WELCOMED RAINFALL
WILL BE ON ITS WAY AND IT IS LIKELY THAT LOCATIONS WEST OF THE ACF
BASIN EXPERIENCE A "WETTING RAIN" DEFINED BY AT LEAST 1/4", WHICH
DOES NOT MOVE THE DROUGHT NEEDLE, BUT IT'S BETTER THAN NOTHING.
EXPECT A VERY WARM NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE SULTRY 60S.
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO FORECAST TO AFFECT PRIMARILY THE FL BIG BEND
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 226 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, WHICH MAY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL IN ADDITION TO MORNING
FOG IN THE FL BIG BEND. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN WHILE RACING OFF TO OUR NE, SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMICS
SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES, REDEVELOP, OR
INTENSIFY AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY INCREASES. ADDING IN SOME DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS, AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL IN THE
TALLEST CELLS.
THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION EXITS THE REGION TO OUR WEST BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOL & DRY NW WINDS FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THANKS TO
A COMBO OF RAINFALL/CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COLD-AIR ADVECTION PROMPTS TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FROM NW TO SE BY THANKSGIVING
MORNING. HOWEVER, A SUSTAINED WIND AROUND 10 KTS WILL MAKE
CONDITIONS FEEL LIKE THE MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT A
COOL, DRY, AND BREEZY THANKSGIVING DAY IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER, SO PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION IF DEALING WITH OUTDOOR
BURNING AND HEED ANY DIRECTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. PREPARE FOR
A CHILLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO BLACK FRIDAY MORNING AS OUR
FORECAST SHOWS WIDESPREAD LOWS MID TO LOW 30S AND SUB-FREEZING
WIND CHILLS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 20S. THE FOLLOWING NIGHT IS SLATED
TO BE FEW DEGREES WARMER, BUT STILL BUNDLE-UP WORTHY.
A WARMING TREND GETS UNDERWAY THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETAILS ON HOW
PRECIPITATION EVOLVES ARE MURKY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
FOG DID NOT EVOLVE LIKE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH THE 6Z TAF
ISSUANCE. WINDS HAVE STAYED ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FORMATION
AND MUCH OF THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN IN THE MID LEVELS. THEREFORE, FOG
AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS WERE MOSTLY REMOVED FROM THE TERMINALS OUTSIDE
OF ECP/DHN WHERE THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF DEVELOPMENT THRU
14Z. MAINLY VFR CONDS PREVAIL TODAY BEFORE CIGS START CRASHING
AROUND MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF FRONTAL CONVECTION. PROB30 GROUPS ARE IN
PLACE SANS VLD IN THE 6-12Z TIME FRAME FOR -TSRA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WATERS OUT TO 20 NM
BETWEEN APALACHICOLA AND KEATON BEACH UNTIL 10AM EST. HOWEVER, AN
EXTENSION IN TIME IS ON THE TABLE IF FOG DOES NOT SHOW SIGNS OF
DISSIPATION BY THEN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH MAINLY
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING, LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS, AND WATERSPOUTS.
CWF SYNOPSIS: MODERATE SOUTHERLY BREEZES PREVAIL TODAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THEN TEMPORARILY SWITCH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT NEARS THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY. AN
ABRUPT SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER THAT AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG, WHICH MAY BECOME DENSE
AT TIMES, IS FORECAST OVER THE NEARSHORE LEGS BETWEEN APALACHICOLA
AND KEATON BEACH PRIOR TO THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY BREEZES USHER ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER THE
PANHANDLE WATERS WITH CAUTIONARY LEVELS IN APALACHEE BAY ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. STRONG NORTHERLIES PERSIST ON BLACK FRIDAY AND
SPREAD TO REMAINING OUTER WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLIES THEN
ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
CONTINUED MARITIME FLOW OFF THE GULF AHEAD OF A FORMIDABLE COLD
FRONT WILL MAINTAIN MOIST CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FOG AND THICK
CLOUD COVER TODAY AND TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES CREEP INTO THE
WIREGRASS REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH POCKETS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS
OVER MOST OF SW GA.
WETTING RAINS APPEAR LIKELY ALONG/WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA-FLINT
RIVER BASIN ON WEDNESDAY WHEN SEMI-ORGANIZED BANDS OR LINEAR
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE) SWEEP THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA. PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FL BIG BEND THEN SPREAD
INTO PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL GA THAT MORNING OFF APALACHEE BAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL CONVECTION.
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY
THANKSGIVING DAY IN ADDITION TO BREEZY NW WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS
WHEN CONSIDERING CRITICALLY LOW RH AMIDST WIDESPREAD EXTREME TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT INTRODUCES ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
MUCH-WELCOMED RAINFALL IS UPON US BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING, THEN CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY THANKS TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER, FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE BARELY 1 INCH, SO ALTHOUGH
MANY LOCATIONS ARE SLATED TO EXPERIENCE A "WETTING RAIN", DROUGHT
IMPROVEMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE WEATHER TURNS DRY FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS OF THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 2025, THE US DROUGHT MONITOR NOW HAS
THE AREA AROUND THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA STATE LINE OUTLINED IN
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4), WHICH IS THE HIGHEST CATEGORY ON THE
DROUGHT MONITOR. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE 2011-2012 WINTER
THAT ANY PART OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY HAS BEEN OUTLINED IN
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT.
FOR OUR LATEST DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENTS, VISIT:
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 81 67 76 43 / 0 50 40 0
PANAMA CITY 79 67 77 43 / 10 70 20 0
DOTHAN 82 64 73 39 / 10 70 10 0
ALBANY 83 64 75 38 / 0 80 20 0
VALDOSTA 83 63 77 41 / 0 20 50 0
CROSS CITY 82 62 80 45 / 0 0 40 0
APALACHICOLA 76 68 76 47 / 10 50 40 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ108-112.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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