059
FXUS62 KTAE 260600
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
100 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
- INTENSE COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WELCOME RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION AMIDST THE EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO BRING ANY DROUGHT
IMPROVEMENT.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY WITH CRITICAL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND BREEZY WINDS.
- WIND CHILLS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW FREEZING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. AIR
TEMPERATURES COULD BRIEFLY DROP BELOW FREEZING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
INITIAL COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA NORTHWARD TO THE
GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
EDGING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
COUNTIES. FURTHER BEHIND, THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT, WITH THE PUSH
OF COLDER AIR AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY CATCH UP TO
THE LEAD FRONT LATER TODAY. TAKING A LOOK AT THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE
FOR TODAY, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTING THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL OCCURING NOW THROUGH ABOUT DAWN AS THE BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES EAST. BY MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT REACHES THE EASTERN BIG BEND, MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE
'DRYING UP' WITH A OVERALL DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS. A
MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT FROM
PANAMA CITY TO ALBANY LINE AND WESTWARD.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY USHERING
IN A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS BEGINNING TONIGHT. AS THE COOLER
AIR WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND FRONT, HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE WIREGRASS TO NEAR 80
DEGREES IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. THE COOLER AIR REALLY WORKS IN
TONIGHT WITH LOWS SOME 20-30 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO LOWS THIS
MORNING. READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
PLAINS STATES THURSDAY AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY, WITH
THIS PERIOD BEING TO THE COLDEST OF THE LONG TERM P[PERIOD. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT WIND IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP US FROM FULLY MAXIMIZING RADIATIONAL COOLING.
FOLLOWED SUIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF UNDERCUTTING NBM
GUIDANCE BASED ON MOS GUIDANCE AND THE NBM SPREAD. HAVE HIGHS BOTH
THANKSGIVING DAY AND BLACK FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW FREEZING IN
SPOTS AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20F
RANGE AS WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-8 MPH.
HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE IN THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A WARMING TREND BEGINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AND FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. A CORRESPONDING COLD
FRONT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING LATER
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BEYOND
SUNDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF STRUGGLING WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. NEVERTHELESS, HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND WILL REACH BACK INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS BACK INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AT THE MOMENT, WITH
FOG AT VLD LOW CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS, AND CONVECTION AT DHN/ECP. A
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. CONVECTION
WILL TRAVEL AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LEAVING DHN AND ECP OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS THEN IMPACTING ABY/TLH BEFORE DAWN THEN VLD AFTER
DAWN. LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SEVERAL HOURS
OF LOW STRATUS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AT SPEEDS OF
8-12 KNOTS. A RETURN TO VFR CAN FIRST BE EXPECTED AT DHN/ECP LATER
THIS MORNING THEN AT THE OTHER SITES BY MID AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
TRANSIT THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. BY THIS EVENING, EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE WESTERN
WATERS AND REACH THE EASTERN WATERS OVERNIGHT. A LENGTHY PERIOD OF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE MARINE AREA, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY
BY SATURDAY BUT REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL MARCH ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS TO RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL NOT ADD UP TO MUCH BUT ANY RAINFALL IS BENEFICIAL.
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY THANKSGIVING
DAY IN ADDITION TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS
WHEN CONSIDERING CRITICALLY LOW RH AMIDST WIDESPREAD EXTREME TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT INTRODUCES ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
GENERALLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY
WILL AVERAGE UP TO 1/2 INCH WITH A FEW POCKETS OF 1-2 INCHES IN
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA,A AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DECREASE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND. UNFORTUNATELY, IT APPEARS THE WORST HIT AREAS BY
THE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAINFALL WITH THIS INITIAL EVENT. FURTHER, GIVEN THE WIDE
DISPARITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAY'S EVENT, SUFFICIENT RELIEF
IN THE NEAR TERM TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS IS UNLIKELY.
FURTHER, THE PATTERN IN THE LONG RANGE, EVEN IF THE MORE INTENSE
GFS WERE TO VERIFY, IS MOVING TOO QUICKLY TO SUPPORT ANY FLOOD
POTENTIAL. THEREFORE, THERE ARE NO FLOOD CONCERNS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 78 45 62 38 / 50 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 77 45 63 40 / 30 0 0 0
DOTHAN 74 39 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 76 41 59 34 / 30 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 79 43 62 34 / 60 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 81 49 67 36 / 20 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 75 48 62 41 / 60 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
GMZ751-752-770-772.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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