041
FXUS62 KTAE 261950
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
250 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 108 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND TODAY'S COLD FRONT. WIND CHILLS
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW FREEZING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY WITH CRITICAL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND BREEZY WINDS. USE EXTREME CAUTION
IF DEALING WITH FLAMES OUTDOOR AND FOLLOW LOCAL BURN BANS AND
OFFICIAL'S RECOMMENDATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WAS BISECTING HALF THE FORECAST AREA
FROM A TIFTON TO APALACHICOLA LINE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MAKES
STEADY SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS. THE NEXT FRONT, THE STRONGER OF THE
TWO, WAS LOCATED UP IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AND WAS MAKING SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. THESE FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. THEY WILL BRING A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION. BY DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING, MUCH OF THE
REGION SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 40S AND UPPER 30S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ON THANKSGIVING
DAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS AND IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR
ALABAMA/GEORGIA COUNTIES UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. THE MID TO UPPER
60S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND.
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.
GIVEN CONTINUING EXTREME/EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT, CRITICALLY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, AND BREEZY 10 TO 15 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS, FIRE
DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED.
ANOTHER FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER
PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH, BY THE EVENING
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOVE IN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.
LONG TERM
(THANKSGIVING NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AND THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM THURSDAY'S SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO CHILLY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, DESPITE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY AS DRY
AIR AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE.
BY THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND
MODERATING EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
LATE WEEKEND COLD FRONT. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS THE UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES AS GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
PATTERN EVOLUTION. REGARDLESS, IT DOES AT LEAST APPEAR THAT WE
WILL HAVE MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
LINGERING MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS NEAR THE VLD TERMINAL EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUR WESTERN TERMINALS
MAY SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KTS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY, VEERING MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SECOND COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 108 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADVISORY
LEVELS IN THE WESTERN WATERS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
REACH THE EASTERN WATERS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A LENGTHY PERIOD
OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE MARINE AREA, WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY
BY SATURDAY BUT REMAIN NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME DECREASES IN
WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
BRINGS CAUTIONARY/ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 108 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY
THANKSGIVING DAY IN ADDITION TO BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THESE CONDITIONS, WHEN
CONSIDERING CRITICALLY LOW RH AMIDST WIDESPREAD EXTREME TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT, WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT A GREATER FIRE DANGER
THREAT DESPITE THE CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 108 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
FURTHER RAINFALL FROM TODAY'S FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT AND ISOLATED. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS NEXT SYSTEM COULD GIVE THE REGION THE
BEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS WE'VE SEEN IN SOME TIME, BUT EVEN
THEN, CURRENT HIGH-END AMOUNTS (10% CHANCE OF OCCURING) ARE ONLY AROUND
2 INCHES. THIS WOULD BE VERY WELCOME RAINFALL, BUT MODEL SPREAD
REMAINS VERY HIGH FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM AT THIS TIME SO CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW. GIVEN DROUGHT CONDITIONS, EVEN THESE AMOUNT WOULD
NOT LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS. EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT CONTINUES. THE MOST RECENT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 78 44 62 36 / 50 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 77 44 63 39 / 20 0 0 0
DOTHAN 73 38 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 75 38 59 32 / 20 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 78 41 61 33 / 50 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 80 48 67 34 / 30 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 76 47 62 40 / 40 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY
FOR GMZ751-752-770-772.
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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