254
FXUS62 KTAE 270704
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
204 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 154 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
- THERE IS AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND BREEZY WINDS. USE EXTREME CAUTION
IF DEALING WITH FLAMES OUTDOORS, AND FOLLOW LOCAL BURN BANS AND
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS.
- A LENGTHY PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR
GREATER ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
- A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RAIN
WILL BE BENEFICIAL GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND EXACT TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA, AND THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE TODAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR
ALABAMA/GEORGIA COUNTIES UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.
GIVEN THE ONGOING EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS, VERY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, AND BREEZY 10 TO 15 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS,
FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY.
CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS. A LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. A LIGHT BREEZE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT, AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY
DIP INTO THE 20S TO NEAR 30 FOR MOST OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE AIRMASS STARTS TO MOISTEN AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. BY THE WEEKEND, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST, AND MODERATING EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL HAVE MUCH BETTER CHANCES
FOR RAIN AT SOME POINT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. CURRENTLY, THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN IS CENTERED ON TUESDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS WEAK INSTABILITY MOVES INLAND. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
RECOVER NORTHWARD AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY INITIALLY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS AND LASTING
THROUGH SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 154 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING BEHIND A COLD
FRONT, AND A LENGTHY PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS
ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY BY SATURDAY BUT REMAIN
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 154 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A FRONT TODAY IN
ADDITION TO BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 20 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS, WHEN CONSIDERING CRITICALLY LOW
RH AMIDST WIDESPREAD EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT, WILL BRING
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY AND FRIDAY. COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL LIMIT A GREATER FIRE DANGER THREAT DESPITE THE CRITICALLY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 154 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN MAKER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM COULD GIVE THE
REGION THE BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT WE'VE SEEN IN
SOME TIME, BUT MODEL SPREAD ON AMOUNTS REMAINS HIGH. THE MOST
LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS PAINT 1-2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH 0.25-1 INCH
VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE 10TH
PERCENTILE NBM VALUES ARE AS LOW AS JUST 0.1-0.25 INCHES ACROSS
THE WEST WITH LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES ELSEWHERE. ON THE FLIP SIDE,
THE 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES ARE AS HIGH AS 3-4 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH 1-3 INCHES ELSEWHERE.
IN THE MEANTIME, EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES. THE
MOST RECENT LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 62 36 57 36 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 62 40 59 41 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 58 33 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 59 33 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 62 33 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 67 32 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 61 40 57 45 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ FRIDAY FOR GMZ730-
751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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