195
FXUS62 KTAE 281109
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
609 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 608 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
- THERE IS AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND BREEZY WINDS. USE EXTREME CAUTION IF DEALING
WITH FLAMES OUTDOORS, AND FOLLOW LOCAL BURN BANS AND OFFICIAL
RECOMMENDATIONS.
- A LENGTHY PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR
GREATER ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
- A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RAIN
WILL BE BENEFICIAL GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND EXACT TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A 50-60% CHANCE OF 1 INCH
OF RAIN OR GREATER FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
A COOL AND VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 50S
TODAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF
15-25% THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ONGOING EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND BREEZY 10 TO 15 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH, FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED AGAIN TODAY.
CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS. A LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
BY THE WEEKEND, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST, AND MODERATING
EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK HIGH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTS THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE 00Z GFS
DEVELOPS AN 850 MB JET OF 40-50 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. GIVEN
THE DYNAMICS, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WEAK INSTABILITY MOVES INLAND. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
RECOVER NORTHWARD AS SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE HIGH.
THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATER ON TUESDAY WITH A DRY DAY EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD APPROACH WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS AND LASTING
THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 136 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WITH
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 MPH.
THESE CONDITIONS, WHEN CONSIDERING CRITICALLY LOW RH AMIDST
WIDESPREAD EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT, WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER AGAIN TODAY. COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT A GREATER
FIRE DANGER THREAT DESPITE THE CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
FIRE CONCERNS BEGIN TO DECREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 136 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN MAKER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM COULD GIVE THE REGION
THE BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT WE'VE SEEN IN SOME TIME.
THE MOST LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS PAINT 1-2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH 0.25-1 INCH VALUES
ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA. THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 1 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BE VERY
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, BUT WE WILL NEED SEVERAL OF THESE SYSTEMS TO
ERASE THE LARGE RAINFALL DEFICITS ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE MEANTIME, EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES. THE MOST
RECENT LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 57 37 65 50 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 58 41 66 54 / 0 0 0 10
DOTHAN 55 34 63 47 / 0 0 0 10
ALBANY 55 33 63 44 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 57 34 65 46 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 60 35 72 50 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 57 44 65 57 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ730-765.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY FOR
GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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