073
FXUS62 KTAE 282338
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
638 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 638 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
- A LENGTHY PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR
GREATER ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
- A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND EXACT TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A 40-60% CHANCE OF 1 INCH
OF RAIN OR GREATER.
- A LOW-CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. MONITOR UPDATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
ONE LAST CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, THE DRY AIR MASS
SHOULD ALLOW US TO COOL FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S AGAIN.
FOR SATURDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE REGION AND A
MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED AS EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
BEGINS TO REDEVELOP. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AND MILDER CONDITIONS
BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
AS SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
THE FIRST FEATURE IN A BROAD TRAIN OF DISTURBANCES IN THE LARGE
EASTERN US TROUGH APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS ITS
PARENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE QUICKLY LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD
LEAVE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN PLACE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BY MONDAY, THE STATIONARY
FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EARLY TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO GET BENEFICIAL
RAIN, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR HEAVIER RAINS AND SEVERE
WEATHER LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES IN THE PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. IN THESE LOCATIONS THE PROBABILITY FOR 1
INCH OF RAIN HAS REMAINED STEADY AND IS AROUND 40 TO 60%, WITH
LOWER PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND SOUTHERN GA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL MESOSCALE FEATURES
SETUP BUT WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN AND A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET, IT LIKELY APPEARS THAT SOME LOW-END SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEAR IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
BEHIND THIS FEATURE QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR A FEW DAYS
BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK MOVES THROUGH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY,
BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND NO CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY CLOCK AROUND FROM NORTHERLY TO
EASTERLY. ONE WILL BE FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AROUND SUNRISE
SATURDAY, THANKS TO A 30+ KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE EAST. IF
SURFACE WINDS BECOME ANY MORE DECOUPLED OR BACKED THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST, THEN INCLUSION OF LLWS WOULD BE NEEDED IN THE TAFS.
FLOW ALOFT IN THE 5,000-10,000 FOOT LAYER WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY OR SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN IN THAT LAYER TO BRING SOME SCT-BKN
STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH BASES INITIALLY IN THE
045-070 RANGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
AROUND TO SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
AFTER A ROUND OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON, CONCERNS
BEGIN TO DECREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION. RH SHOULD BE 10 TO 20 PERCENTAGE POINTS
HIGHER FOR MOST AREAS EXPECT OUR SOUTHEAST AL AND PANHANDLE
COUNTIES WHERE DRIER AIR WILL LINGER ONE MORE AFTERNOON. GOOD
DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED AS TRANSPORT WINDS BECOME EAST ON
SATURDAY AND SOUTH AND/OR LIGHT/VARIABLE ON SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN MAKER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM COULD GIVE THE REGION
THE BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT WE'VE SEEN IN SOME TIME.
THE MOST LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS PAINT 0.5-1.5 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH
0.25-1 INCH VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA. THERE IS A
40-60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THIS WOULD BE VERY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, BUT WE WILL NEED SEVERAL
OF THESE SYSTEMS TO ERASE THE LARGE RAINFALL DEFICITS ACROSS THE
REGION.
IN THE MEANTIME, EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES. THE MOST
RECENT LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 34 65 51 74 / 0 0 0 20
PANAMA CITY 40 66 54 73 / 0 0 20 30
DOTHAN 33 63 47 72 / 0 0 0 20
ALBANY 31 63 46 72 / 0 0 0 20
VALDOSTA 32 65 48 75 / 0 0 0 10
CROSS CITY 33 72 51 79 / 0 0 0 10
APALACHICOLA 45 65 57 71 / 0 0 20 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EST /1 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR
FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY FOR
GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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