922
FXUS62 KTAE 291700
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1200 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST AL AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST GA DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND ONGOING DROUGHT.
- A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THIS
RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE
OF 1 INCH OF RAIN OR GREATER FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NEAR AND ALONG THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE COAST. MONITOR UPDATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL BENEFICIAL RAINS LATE IN
THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 851 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWER RH THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN
SOUTHEAST AL AND IN SOUTHWEST GA FROM THE FLINT RIVER VALLEY
NORTHWESTWARD, RANGING FROM 25 TO 30%. AS A RESULT, ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS AGAIN THIS AFTN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WITH SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING EASTERLY. THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL START TO MODIFY
TODAY WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER COMPARED
TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH MID 40S TO LOW 50S EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK HIGH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTS THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE 00Z GFS
DEVELOPS AN 850 MB JET OF 40-50 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. GIVEN
THE DYNAMICS, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WEAK INSTABILITY MOVES INLAND. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
RECOVER NORTHWARD AS SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE HIGH.
THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATER ON TUESDAY WITH A DRY DAY EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD APPROACH WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT IN OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL JET. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
THE DEPTH AND EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE TERMINALS WHICH
TRANSLATES INTO A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST, INCLUDING THE TIMING.
OVERALL, THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR LOW CLOUDS IS AT ABY AND VLD,
WHERE WE'RE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR AFTER 06Z
WITH IFR POSSIBLE. INCLUDED MVFR CIGS AT TLH STARTING ~05Z AND
A TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS AROUND SUNRISE AT ECP. AT DHN, CANNOT RULE
OUT RESTRICTIONS, BUT MAINTAINED VFR GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY.
EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR AROUND 15Z ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF
MVFR CIGS GIVEN CLOUD BASES IN THE 3-4K FT RANGE. AFOREMENTIONED
LOW-LEVEL JET ATOP DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) AT ABY AFTER ~06Z BUT NOT AT VLD
ATTM AS THE JET BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AS SURFACE WINDS SUBSIDE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 851 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY AND
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KNOTS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SURGE
OF EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT ADMONISHES
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS TO EXERCISE CAUTION. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 127 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. A
WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 127 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN MAKER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA
MAINLY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL GIVE THE
REGION THE BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT WE'VE SEEN IN
SOME TIME. THE MOST LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS PAINT 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WITH 0.25-1 INCH VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA. THERE
IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THIS WOULD BE VERY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, BUT WE WILL NEED SEVERAL
OF THESE SYSTEMS TO ERASE THE LARGE RAINFALL DEFICITS ACROSS THE
REGION.
IN THE MEANTIME, EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES. THE
MOST RECENT LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 66 51 73 56 / 0 0 10 20
PANAMA CITY 66 54 73 56 / 0 10 20 20
DOTHAN 63 47 72 50 / 0 0 10 20
ALBANY 62 45 71 49 / 0 0 10 10
VALDOSTA 66 48 74 53 / 0 0 10 10
CROSS CITY 72 51 78 55 / 0 0 10 10
APALACHICOLA 65 57 70 60 / 0 10 20 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775.
UPDATE...LF
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...DVD/LF
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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