070
FXUS62 KTAE 081822
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
122 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM THE OKALOOSA/WALTON
COUNTY LINE TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
- THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE LITTLE OR NO RAIN AFTER THIS MORNING,
ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
FIRST CONCERN IS POCKETS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE
UNTIL 3 AM CT, BY WHICH SHOWERS PRECEDING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SHOULD ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE THE FOG. FURTHER NORTHEAST, A A 50%
CHANCE OF DENSE FOG INTO THE FL BIG BEND AND SOUTHERN TIER OF GA
COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE. DEPENDING ON TRENDS, A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS. ELEVATED WINDS
ARE THWARTING AN OTHERWISE EXCELLENT SETUP FOR DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD EXIT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-40S TO MID-50S
WILL ONLY RISE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ON AVERAGE TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID-50S TO MID-60S. BREEZY WINDS TODAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
AL INTO THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH.
TURNING COLDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
CONTINUED CHILLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST. HIGHS IN THE 50S ON TUESDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS PROGGED ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, BUT
A LACK OF MOIST RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS FAVORING A MAINLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, A COLD AIR MASS MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS, BUT ITS SOUTHWARD EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME, WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS
NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A 10% TO 20% CHANCE FOR COLD
WEATHER IMPACTS NEXT WEEKEND, SUCH AS LOW WIND CHILLS OR A HARD
FREEZE. THAT POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE, SO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025
LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN
TERMINALS NEAR VLD. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING.
HOWEVER, SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS ACROSS ECP/DHN ARE LEADING TO
VFR/MVFR IMPROVEMENTS. AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN, CONTINUED
IMPROVEMENTS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY AT ECP/DHN AND POSSIBLY TLH.
LATER TODAY SOME IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT VLD.
WHILE MOST TERMINALS IMPROVE TO VFR OVERNIGHT, SOME LOCAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS COULD REDEVELOP OR PERSIST ACROSS ABY/VLD AS LOW-STRATUS
IS SLOW TO CLEAR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY CLOCKS WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH,
INCREASING TO ADVISORY LEVELS INTO EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE WEST OF APALACHICOLA, THEN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO THE
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS ONLY
A 30% CHANCE THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE WATERS FROM THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
TO THE SUWANEE RIVER. GRADUAL RETURN TO MORE TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHEN THERE
IS A 40% CHANCE THAT WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY
LEVELS FOR SMALL CRAFT MAINLY WEST OF APALACHICOLA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THIS MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AND PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES. DISPERSION WILL RETURN TO GOOD LEVELS BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE TRANSPORT WINDS BECOME WEAK EASTERLY TUESDAY LEADING
TO POCKETS OF LOW DISPERSION, THEN BECOME BRISK WESTERLY WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO GOOD DISPERSION AGAIN. A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
TODAY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RH IN THE 40S FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OUTSIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW DISPERSION TUESDAY AFTERNOON, NO OTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING, WITH FROST DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
AFTER THE RAIN EXITS THIS MORNING, MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, PER ENSEMBLES. AS SUCH, THERE
ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS. LOOKING BACK AT THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS,
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OCCURRED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WIDESPREAD
2-4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH POCKETS OF 4-6 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN
FL PANHANDLE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 37 58 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 38 58 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 32 54 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 33 54 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 36 56 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 39 62 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 41 57 44 66 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ TONIGHT FOR
FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY FOR
GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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