309
FXUS62 KTAE 090601
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
101 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
- A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. IMPACTFUL COLD WEATHER IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
THIS MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S AWAY FROM GULF COAST. HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY (COOLEST
IN SOUTHWEST GA CLOSER TO THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE) WILL
WARM INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD FRONT,
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH. BRIEFLY COOLER IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH MID-50S TO MID-60S FOR
HIGHS BEFORE WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S FRIDAY. THE TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER, AND THE
NEXT POTENTIAL COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. IMPACTFUL COLD WEATHER IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
SKIES ARE CLEAR AT ALL TERMINALS RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER, SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BKN STRATUS DECK OVER EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA THAT
IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE OBS SHOW CLOUD BASES BENEATH
THIS STRATUS RANGING FROM 010-030. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
ABY AND VLD AROUND 10Z-11Z, THEN CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO DHN
AND TLH. TLH WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. ECP WILL
LIKELY MISS OUT AND REMAIN CLEAR.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT, SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD BE A DECENT SETUP FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG. UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS, ECP COULD START TO SEE VISIBILITY GO DOWN BEFORE THE
END OF THE 06Z TAF VALID PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL SUBSIDE THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH TRANQUIL
BOATING CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY, AND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. THERE IS A LOW
(30%) CHANCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. TRANQUIL
BOATING CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE LOW DISPERSION THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST FL BIG BEND DUE TO
LIGHT NORTHEAST TRANSPORT WINDS. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BECOME
BRISK SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY, YIELDING GOOD DISPERSION, THEN
BECOME NORTHWEST AFTER A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LEADING TO
FAIR DISPERSION ON THURSDAY. NO OTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS NOT UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 58 35 67 44 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 58 42 68 47 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 54 32 64 40 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 54 31 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 56 31 64 42 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 62 36 67 47 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 57 44 66 50 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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