121
FXUS62 KTAE 100610
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
110 AM EST WED DEC 10 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST WED DEC 10 2025
- PATCHY FREEZING FOG EARLY THIS MORNING IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, MAINLY IN RIVER AND STREAM VALLEYS, MAY LEAD TO
SLICK SPOTS ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO SUWANEE RIVER.
- A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS IN EFFECT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR WALTON, BAY, AND WEST-FACING GULF COUNTY BEACHES.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST WED DEC 10 2025
INTERESTING PATTERN THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
AND RECENT RAINFALL LEADING TO SOME RADIATION FOG, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOST PREVALENT NORTH OF I-10 IN SOUTHEAST AL
AND SOUTHWEST GA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S, PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE RIVER AND
STREAM VALLEYS, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SLICK SPOTS ON ELEVATED
SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THIS WOULD BE MORE
OF AN ISSUE WHERE FOG IS MOST PERSISTENT AND WHERE TEMPS ARE
COLDEST.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD
FRONT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20
MPH. BRIEFLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH
MID-50S TO MID-60S FOR HIGHS BEFORE WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S
FRIDAY. FRIDAY MORNING WILL START OUT CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE
30S AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST. A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS CLOSER TO THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF THE
GUIDANCE. A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ON TAP OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS, WITH THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE PROGGED SUNDAY,
AND IMPACTFUL COLD WEATHER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUT NORTH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST WED DEC 10 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS AT 0540Z SHOW SHALLOW FOG AND LOW
STRATUS FORMING OVER EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA,
PARTICULARLY IN AND NEAR RIVER VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND THROUGH THE NIGHT, POSING A RISK DETERIORATING BEYOND AIRPORT
MINIMUMS FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. ECP WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY TO ESCAPE FOG IMPACTS. DUE TO THE SHALLOWNESS, BURNOFF
SHOULD OCCUR PRETTY QUICKLY BETWEEN 2 AND 3 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING. IT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW HOURS OF SCT-
BKN STRATOCUMULUS WITH BASES IN THE 020-040 RANGE, THEN FOLLOWED BY
ABRUPT CLEARING AND A TURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST WED DEC 10 2025
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DRY
COLD FRONT FOR THE WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA, WHERE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 2 PM CT, THEN FOR THE WATERS EAST OF
APALACHICOLA WHERE THE ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 7 PM ET. THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST, AND WHILE THE ADVISORY EXPIRES 7 AM ET/6 AM CT THURSDAY,
SMALL CRAFT WILL WANT TO EXERCISE CAUTION MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO
FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZES. MORE TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS RETURN BY
FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKING TO BE ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST WED DEC 10 2025
A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ON TAP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRANSPORT
WINDS PICKUP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH
MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY. WITH
MODEST MIXING HEIGHTS, GOOD DISPERSION IS FORECAST TODAY AND TOMORROW.
A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN THURSDAY WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH IN THE
30S. THERE ARE NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST WED DEC 10 2025
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY WITH NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 64 41 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 66 43 60 43 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 64 37 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 62 37 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 63 39 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 65 43 63 34 / 0 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 65 45 59 45 / 0 10 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ751-752-770-772.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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