658
FXUS62 KTAE 110256
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
956 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 951 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO SUWANEE RIVER.
- A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS IN EFFECT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR WALTON, BAY, AND WEST-FACING GULF COUNTY BEACHES.
- A LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF A FREEZE IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025
UPDATES DON'T LOOK NECESSARY THIS EVENING, THE FORECAST IS
CURRENTLY ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE IS MINIMAL
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND THE HRRR DOES GENERATE A
LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO, BUT NEARLY ALL THE OTHER GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE
ANY SHOWERS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-30S TO THE NORTHWEST TO
THE MID 40S TO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE PRIMARILY IN
THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NEARLY ON TOP OF OUR AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT, LEADING TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS, HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE USING NBM25 AND CONSMOS, WHICH RESULTS
IN FROST AND A LIGHT FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THIS WILL BE A VERY QUICK COLD SNAP AS TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
RETURN TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND LOWS IN
THE 40S. THE NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE NORTHWEST TO
THE MID 70S TO THE SOUTHEAST. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN LIKELY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-10 WHERE
PROBABILITIES ARE GREATER THAN 50%. THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF I-10 ARE LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%). WE'LL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON WIND CHILLS, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT, GIVEN THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED. CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA, CLOSE TO OUR COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEYOND THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
LONG TERM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN WATERS AND THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LREF PROBABILITIES OF GALE-FORCE GUSTS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY ARE CURRENTLY LOW (20-30%).
FROM CWF SYNOPSIS... STRONG WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES
BEHIND TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVEL
ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINING AS
IS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY BREEZES RETURN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ADVISORY-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY BREEZES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025
NO WETTING RAINS ARE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH TRANSPORT WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10-20 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WITH MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3,000 FT WILL LEAD TO FAIR TO GOOD
DISPERSIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE MID
30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS TRANSPORT WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
DISPERSIONS WILL BE GOOD BOTH DAYS ACROSS THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS, LEADING TO NO
FURTHER DROUGHT IMPROVEMENTS AVER THIS WEEKEND'S RAINFALL. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS, LEADING TO NO
FURTHER DROUGHT IMPROVEMENTS AVER THIS WEEKEND'S RAINFALL. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 42 58 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 44 59 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 36 55 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 37 55 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 40 57 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 45 63 31 69 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 45 59 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THURSDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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