289
FXUS62 KTAE 111045
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
545 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 543 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING FROM OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO SUWANEE RIVER.
- A LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF A FREEZE IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NEARLY COMPLETE AS OF 1 AM ET WITH
THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE FORGOTTEN COAST. TEMPS ARE RUNNING WARMER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND SHOULD START THE DAY RANGING FROM
THE LOW-30S NORTH TO LOW-40S SOUTH WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE SUWANEE VALLEY. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IN STORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPS MID-50S
NORTH TO LOW-60S SOUTH. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL YIELD DEW POINTS
CLOSER TO 10TH PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND IDEAL LONGWAVE (RADIATIONAL COOLING) WILL
SUPPORT LOW TEMPS AT LEAST LOW TO MID-30S, WITH SOME UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE (~25TH PERCENTILE OF THE GUIDANCE), SO THE FORECAST
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A SKOSH LOWER. THE END RESULT IS STILL
THE SAME WITH A LIGHT FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WITH HEIGHTS RISING ALOFT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. DEW POINTS
CLOSER TO 25TH PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE FRIDAY. LONGWAVE TROUGH
SHARPENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH A STRONG COLD FROPA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LIMITED
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOIST RETURN MAY LEAD TO SOME
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE FL
BIG BEND. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FILTER IN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FORECAST SHOWS A CONTRAST IN HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY WITH 50S NORTHWEST, WHERE TEMPS REMAIN STEADY OR FALL IN
THE AFTERNOON, TO THE 70S SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A 50% CHANCE OF
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH ON SUNDAY. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY, WIND CHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT COULD GET CLOSE TO COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR A
COUPLE OF COLD MORNINGS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH A MEDIUM TO
HIGH CHANCE OF A FREEZE. THE TEMPERATURE SEESAW CONTINUES WITH THE
RETURN OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR MIDWEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
FOLLOWING A DRY COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, A DRY AIR MASS
AHS OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH THE DRY AIR PREVENTING
FOG DEVELOPMENT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
BETWEEN 04Z AND 05Z, BUOYS 42036, 42027, AND 42028 WERE ALL
OBSERVING WINDS AROUND 20 KT. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED
20 KT WINDS FROM THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO THE
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES 20 KT
WINDS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO THE
SUWANEE RIVER. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 7 AM/6 AM CT TODAY.
FROM THE CWF SYNOPSIS...
AFTER THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 7 AM/6 AM CT TODAY,
BRISK NORTH WINDS AND OFFSHORE SEAS NEAR 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING, SO SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION. MORE TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT, THE PROBABILITY FOR NORTHERLY GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS
IS INCREASING, AND IS NOW AROUND 40%.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
NO WETTING RAINS ARE FORECAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BRISK
NORTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON, LEADING TO LOW DISPERSION MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST
AL AND THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE, WITH OTHERWISE GOOD DISPERSION AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MEANWHILE, MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH BOTTOMS
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID-30S. TRANSPORT WINDS TURN BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
ON FRIDAY, LEADING GOOD DISPERSION BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION
AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE COAST. LOOKING AHEAD, A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SUNDAY SETS THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AND LOW
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY WITH NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 59 34 69 48 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 60 41 70 53 / 0 0 0 10
DOTHAN 56 35 67 46 / 0 0 0 10
ALBANY 55 33 65 44 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 58 33 67 45 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 63 32 69 45 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 59 43 68 57 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ112.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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