913
FXUS62 KTAE 111753
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1253 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
- LOW (10-30%) CHANCE FOR A HARD FREEZE, OR TEMPERATURES 25
DEGREES OR COLDER, MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I- 10.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM (50-60%) CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS LESS THAN 25 DEGREES
ACROSS FLORIDA AND A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-60%) CHANCE OF WIND
CHILLS LESS THAN 20 DEGREES FOR OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
COUNTIES. THESE ARE VALUES NEEDED FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY.
- GALE CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR THE GULF WATERS.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF OUR FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS
DAYTIME HIGHS SLOWLY WARM CLOSE TO NEAR 70. A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN ON THE HEELS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY AND COULD
BRING A BIT OF FOG FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY AND BRINGS A LOW TO MEDIUM (10-40%)
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA.
MUCH COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT BOTTOM OUT IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF
COLD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WIND
CHILLS CLOSE TO OUR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA, OR LESS THAN 25
DEGREES FOR FL AND LESS THAN 20 DEGREES FOR AL/GA. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER
30S AND MAY NECESSITATE A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE, OR
TEMPERATURES OF 25 DEGREES OF COLDER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE FOR CONTINUED VFR CONDS THIS PERIOD.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTN GO LGT/CALM TONIGHT WHICH SETS THE
STAGE FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT STARTING IN THE 3Z-7Z TIMEFRAME AND
PERSISTING UNTIL ABOUT 13Z. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY FCST, LLWS MAY
ALSO MATERIALIZE DURING THE OVERNIGHT-EARLY MORNING HRS IF A LLJ CAN
DEVELOP. WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SW TMRW TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF
CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS
VARY FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY AND WILL BRING FRESH TO NEAR GALE
SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. GALE FORCE CONDITIONS
ARE NOW FORECAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE REGION DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE FORECAST FRIDAY WITH MINRH
BETWEEN 40 TO 50 PERCENT. A STRONG COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING A 10 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN ALONG WITH IT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOLLOWING
THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED MONDAY.
MINRH IS FORECAST TO DROP TO BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT ON MONDAY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
FROST IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS A 10 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. EVEN THEN, THE
PROBABILITY OF ANY LOCATION RECEIVING MORE THAN 0.25" IS LESS THAN 5
PERCENT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. THEREFORE, NO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR CAME OUT TODAY AND SHOWS A ONE CATEGORY
IMPROVEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR THANKS TO
THIS PAST WEEKEND'S RAIN.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 34 70 47 71 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 43 71 55 71 / 0 0 10 10
DOTHAN 36 70 48 70 / 0 0 10 10
ALBANY 33 68 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 34 69 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 32 70 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 43 70 56 69 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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