911
FXUS62 KTAE 120222
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
922 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 909 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
- LIGHT FREEZE TONIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND SOUTH GEORGIA.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
- LOW (10-30%) CHANCE FOR A HARD FREEZE, OR TEMPERATURES 25
DEGREES OR COLDER, MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I- 10.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM (50-60%) CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS LESS THAN 25 DEGREES
ACROSS FLORIDA AND A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-60%) CHANCE OF WIND
CHILLS LESS THAN 20 DEGREES FOR OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
COUNTIES. THESE ARE VALUES NEEDED FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY.
- GALE CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR THE GULF WATERS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 909 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
02 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN
TALLAHASSEE AND VALDOSTA. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS ALREADY
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES BASED ON OBS BETWEEN NEW
ORLEANS AND MOBILE. INTERESTINGLY, THERE HAS BEEN SOME WEAK
POSITIVE MOISTURE FLUX EVIDENT WHEN WATCHING THE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SINCE 00Z INCREASING A DEGREE OR TWO AN HOUR IN THE
COASTAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE. 10.3-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT MUCH OF THE CIRRUS TRAVERSING THE AREA HAD THINNED AND
WAS MOSTLY STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION. ASIDE FROM THE POSITIVE
MOISTURE FLUX ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH, CONDITIONS ARE
EFFECTIVELY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL GUIDANCE THIS EVENING
DOES SEEM TO APPROPRIATELY ACCOUNT FOR A SLOW INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION, WHICH WOULD LIMIT
THE RATE OF COOLING OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER, WITH THE
DRIER CONDITIONS FURTHER EAST, OPTED TO CONFIGURE THE FORECAST
WEIGHTED BETWEEN THE 50TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM, WHICH IS
JUST A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE 12Z METMOS. THE 18Z MAVMOS
SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE TOO WARM AND NOT WELL IN LINE WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SIMILARLY THE DETERMINISTIC NBM, WHICH IS
AROUND THE 95TH PERCENTILE IS JUST NOT REALISTIC FOR THIS
PARTICULAR ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP. OVERALL, THE CHANGES DON'T RESULT
IN MUCH MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD IN THE MINT
FORECAST FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT. AS WAS SHOWN IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE OF FROST ACROSS INLAND
AREAS TONIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF THIS, NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
HAVE A NICE NIGHT!
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF OUR FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS
DAYTIME HIGHS SLOWLY WARM CLOSE TO NEAR 70. A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN ON THE HEELS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY AND COULD
BRING A BIT OF FOG FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY AND BRINGS A LOW TO MEDIUM (10-40%)
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA.
MUCH COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT BOTTOM OUT IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF
COLD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WIND
CHILLS CLOSE TO OUR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA, OR LESS THAN 25
DEGREES FOR FL AND LESS THAN 20 DEGREES FOR AL/GA. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER
30S AND MAY NECESSITATE A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE, OR
TEMPERATURES OF 25 DEGREES OF COLDER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A FEW CIRRUS WILL
STREAM OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY GENERALLY LESS THAN 8 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS
VARY FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY AND WILL BRING FRESH TO NEAR GALE
SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. GALE FORCE CONDITIONS
ARE NOW FORECAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE REGION DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE FORECAST FRIDAY WITH MINRH
BETWEEN 40 TO 50 PERCENT. A STRONG COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING A 10 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN ALONG WITH IT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOLLOWING
THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED MONDAY.
MINRH IS FORECAST TO DROP TO BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT ON MONDAY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
FROST IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS A 10 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. EVEN THEN, THE
PROBABILITY OF ANY LOCATION RECEIVING MORE THAN 0.25" IS LESS THAN 5
PERCENT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. THEREFORE, NO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR CAME OUT TODAY AND SHOWS A ONE CATEGORY
IMPROVEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR THANKS TO
THIS PAST WEEKEND'S RAIN.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 36 70 47 71 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 43 71 55 71 / 0 0 10 10
DOTHAN 36 70 48 70 / 0 0 10 10
ALBANY 32 68 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 32 69 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 32 70 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 43 70 56 69 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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