988
FXUS62 KTAE 121332
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
832 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 832 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
- WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION EXCEPT THE COASTAL REGIONS OF THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM (50-70%) CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS LESS THAN 25
DEGREES ACROSS FLORIDA AND A MEDIUM CHANCE (50-70%) CHANCE OF
WIND CHILLS LESS THAN 20 DEGREES FOR OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THESE ARE VALUES
NEEDED FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
- MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE FOR A HARD FREEZE, OR TEMPERATURES 25
DEGREES OR COLDER, TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE DOTHAN-MOULTRIE LINE.
- GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE GULF WATERS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 832 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
THIS MORNING, IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN AROUND FREEZING WITH
WIND CHILLS AS WELL IN THE LOW 30S AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO
CALM. AREAS OF TO WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS FOR THE TRI-STATE REGION EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
EMERALD COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR
TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
ARE EXPECTED FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE IS A 20%-40% CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE AL WIREGRASS REGION AND EASTERN FL PANHANDLE. THE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN OUR SE AL COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. IT WILL BE NOTABLY BREEZY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
AND (ESPECIALLY) DEW POINTS WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EARLY MONDAY MORNING, TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S AND AROUND 30 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. WITH THE
ELEVATED WINDS AT AROUND 10-15 MPH, WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER TEENS. DON'T EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO WARM UP MUCH DURING THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
TO 50 DEGREES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10, WITH MOST OF THE
REGION IN THE MID 40S. THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND AND COASTAL REGIONS
WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY IN THE LOW 50S. MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID-20S, AREA WIDE. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CALM MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, SO WIND
CHILLS WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM UP TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
FOR MIDWEEK, THERE LOOKS TO BE AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT COULD BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE (<20%) FOR RAIN, HOWEVER THERE
DOESN'T SEEM TO BE MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THAT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH CALM WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5-8 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET,
EITHER CALM OR VARIABLE 2-4 KNOTS. OVERNIGHT, AFTER 09Z,
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FOG THROUGHOUT THE TRI-STATE REGION.
SOME POSSIBILITY OF IFR AND BELOW FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT TLH AND ECP
WHEREAS PROBABILITIES ARE NOT AS HIGH FOR DHN/ABY/VLD AND
MENTIONED MVFR CONDS. LATER TAFS WILL REFINE TIMING AND CATEGORIES
IN CONJUNCTION WITH 12-18Z GUIDANCE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 139 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY ON
SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG TO NEAR GALE SUSTAINED NORTHERLY
WINDS WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE NOW FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SEAS APPROACHING 8 FEET IN OUR OFFSHORE
WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO RELAX LATE MONDAY HEADING
INTO TUESDAY WITH MORE FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS RETURNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 139 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
SEASONABLY WARM WITH DRY CONDITIONS. DISPERSIONS THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE FAIR TO MODERATE TODAY (FRIDAY) WITH POOR VALUES IN THE
EXTREME SE BIG BEND. POCKETS OF LOW DISPERSIONS ON SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. ON SUNDAY, A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH, INCREASING TRANSPORT WINDS TO AROUND
20-25 MPH DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, WITH HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EMERALD COAST. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, THERE IS ABOUT A 20-40% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN
THE AL/GA WIREGRASS REGIONS AND EASTERN FL PANHANDLE, YET A
"WETTING RAIN" IS NOT EXPECTED. DISPERSIONS WILL BE MODERATE WITH
A FEW POCKETS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS ALONG I-75 IN OUR GA DISTRICTS.
FOR MONDAY, DEW POINTS START VERY LOW FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN AL
AND GA, AND LOW TEENS FOR FL DISTRICTS. MINRH WILL BE IN THE
MID-20S AND LOW 30S FOR MONDAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS
DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH FAIR DISPERSIONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 139 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS A 10 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. EVEN THEN,
THE PROBABILITY OF ANY LOCATION RECEIVING MORE THAN 0.25" IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. THEREFORE, NO FLOODING
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR CAME OUT YESTERDAY AND SHOWS A ONE
CATEGORY IMPROVEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE I-75
CORRIDOR THANKS TO THIS PAST WEEKEND'S RAIN.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 68 46 71 50 / 0 0 10 10
PANAMA CITY 69 54 71 56 / 0 10 10 20
DOTHAN 68 48 70 51 / 0 10 10 40
ALBANY 66 45 70 50 / 0 0 0 30
VALDOSTA 67 42 71 48 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 69 41 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 67 56 68 56 / 0 0 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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