355
FXUS62 KTAE 122349
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
649 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
- FOG, SOME DENSE, IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES.
- LOW (10-30%) CHANCE FOR A HARD FREEZE, OR TEMPERATURES 25
DEGREES OR COLDER, MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I- 10.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-70%) CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS LESS
THAN 25 DEGREES ACROSS FLORIDA AND A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-60%)
CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS LESS THAN 20 DEGREES FOR OUR ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA COUNTIES. THESE ARE VALUES NEEDED FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
- GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
FOG IS THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. SURFACE
WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY LATER TODAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN,
WHICH YOU CAN SEE HAPPENING TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON, OVER THE
AREA. SOME OF THE FOG MAY BE DENSE IN LOCATIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE
WASN'T HIGH ENOUGH IN ANY ONE LOCATION TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING A LOW (LESS
THAN 30%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. MUCH COLD AIR ARRIVES FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING FROM THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY TO
THE 20S AND 30S MONDAY MORNING. BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND THOSE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE
WIND CHILL VALUES, OR FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES, IN THE 10S TO 20S;
VALUES THIS COLD WOULD NECESSITATE AT LEAST A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
WITH A LOW (LESS THAN 20%) CHANCE OF EXTREME COLD WARNINGS.
A COLD MONDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWS WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S DURING THE DAY. WINDS CALM SOME MONDAY NIGHT,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S AGAIN. A LITTLE BREATH OF
WIND WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS. WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP
TO 25 DEGREES OF BELOW TUESDAY MORNING, THERE IS THE CHANCE OF
NEEDING A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN A WARMING TREND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WE SEE
DAYTIME HIGHS RETURN TO THE 60S AND 70S BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
A DEEPER LOOK AT THE FORECAST SHOWS AN H5 TROUGH DIVING OUT OF
CANADA AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS A STRONG 1040+MB SURFACE HIGH
OOZES OUT OF THE ARCTIC AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS HIGH MOSEYS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS ALABAMA, NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF RAIN IS FORECAST.
ON THE COLD FRONT, THE ORIENTATION OF THE H5 TROUGH IS SUCH THAT THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR IS FORECAST TO SLIDE TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF US AT 850MB. HOWEVER, THE STRONG 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH MOVING FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUSH A
SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR OVER THE SOUTHEAST. SO WHILE 850MB TEMPS
ARE "ONLY" FORECAST TO DROP TO BETWEEN 3-7 DEGREES CELSIUS, THE
SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD AIR FROM THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST WEATHER SO FAR THIS SEASON.
IT'LL BE A QUICK SHOT, MIND YOU, THANKS TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE
TROUGH MENTIONED ABOUT, BUT IT'LL BE COLD NONETHELESS.
BASED ON PREVIOUS FORECASTER EXPERIENCE, THE NAM AND HI-RES NAM HAS
A DECENT TRACK RECORD WHEN IT COMES TO LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR, MORESO
THAN GLOBAL MODELS. SO THERE MAY BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
AND WIND CHILLS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
TERMINALS HOLD AT VFR FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SPREADS FROM SW TO NE IN THE 6-11Z RANGE AS WINDS GO CALM.
DURING THAT TIME, EXPECT QUICKLY DETERIORATING FLT CONDS TO IFR
OR LOWER VSBYS/CIGS. SOME OF THE FOG MAY BECOME DENSE WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT TLH AND LOWEST POTENTIAL AT ECP. APPROACHING
OR REACHING AIRPORT MINS ARE POSSIBLE LEADING UP TO SUNRISE.
EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT STARTING AT 15Z (SLOWER AT DHN/ABY) AND
RETURN TO VFR BY 18Z AMIDST A LGT SOUTH TO SW WIND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LOW, LESS THAN 20
PERCENT, CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE EAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA, AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS SATURDAY TURN NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR ARRIVES ON
MONDAY, WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS ANTICIPATED, CREATING MINRH
VALUES BETWEEN 25 TO 30 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS FLORIDA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
GEORGIA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA, WITH A
30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM DEFUNIAK SPRINGS,
FL TO ALBANY, GA. LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST SOUTHEAST OF THAT
LINE. EVEN THEN, CHANCES OF MORE THAN 0.10 INCH IS VERY LOW, OR LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT.
ALL THAT TO SAY THAT THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 47 72 50 68 / 0 0 10 10
PANAMA CITY 53 71 56 67 / 0 10 20 20
DOTHAN 49 71 51 61 / 0 10 40 10
ALBANY 45 71 51 62 / 0 0 30 10
VALDOSTA 44 72 47 67 / 0 0 0 20
CROSS CITY 41 74 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 55 67 55 68 / 0 0 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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