554
FXUS62 KTAE 130655
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
155 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 150 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE REGION. FOG COULD BE DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED FOR SUN-MON AND
MON-TUE. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
MORNING, WITH A MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE FOR A HARD FREEZE (TEMPS
BELOW 25 DEGREES) ON TUESDAY MORNING FOR OUR SE ALABAMA AND SW
GEORGIA COUNTIES.
- GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE GULF WATERS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG, WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLE, IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE IN THE AL AND GA
WIREGRASS REGIONS AND THE FL BIG BEND REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STILL KEEPING US WARM AND DRY DURING THE DAY. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS VERY LATE TONIGHT IN SE ALABAMA. THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, WHICH MAY DELAY THE RAIN UNTIL DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S, AND WARMING TO THE LOW 50S ALONG THE EMERALD COAST FOR
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
ONE WOULD THINK THIS SHOULD BE A SLAM-DUNK FORECAST BUT, ALAS,
REALITY IS NOT SO SIMPLE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (30-40%) FOR SHOWERS IN OUR SE
ALABAMA COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY, AS WELL AS
PATCHY FOG FOR THE FL BIG BEND REGION. AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH,
WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE WIND GUSTS WILL
DECREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT BUT, THE THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND ALSO HOW COLD IT WILL GET FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS.
- WHEN THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, OUR AL AND GA COUNTIES MAY
EXPERIENCE FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH
THE HIGHEST TEMP OF THE DAY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW STRONG THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE.
- THE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WILL BE A GENTLE BREEZE AROUND 10 MPH, WHICH WOULD
BE ENOUGH TO CREATE WIND CHILLS (FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES) IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S BY MONDAY MORNING. FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10, THERE IS CURRENTLY A HIGH CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILLS BELOW 25 DEGREES MONDAY MORNING. THE SAME AREA HAS
AT LEAST A 25% CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING WIND CHILLS BELOW 20
DEGREES. THESE WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH CRITERIA FOR A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL NEEDING TO BE ISSUED FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.
THE COASTAL PANHANDLE SHOULD FINALLY EXPERIENCE THEIR FIRST FREEZE
OF THE SEASON MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THAT, THEY MAY NEED A FREEZE
WARNING FOR THIS TIME PERIOD, ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY.
- AS THE WINDS DECREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY, THE WIND CHILLS
WILL MODERATE. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE STRUGGLING TO MAKE
IT OUT OF THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
AS THE WINDS MAY SHIFT EASTERLY DURING THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR
MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME CLOUD COVER TO BEGIN MONDAY. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE WARMER ON MONDAY (LOW 50S
INSTEAD OF UPPER 40S), PARTICULARLY FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND SE FL BIG BEND.
- WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CAA WON'T BE ACTIVE, SO WE WILL HAVE TO
RELY ON RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH. FOR TUESDAY MORNING, DUE TO THE LIGHT/CALM WINDS, WIND
CHILLS WILL BE THE SAME OR CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID-20S, WITH TEMPS
IN THE LOW 30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SE BIG BEND. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (30-60%) FOR TEMPS TO FALL BELOW 25 DEGREES
FOR OUR AL AND GA COUNTIES. THIS WOULD BE THE NIGHT FOR A FREEZE
(HARD FREEZE) WARNING IN OUR AL AND GA COUNTIES.
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD. TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S, AND CONTINUE THIS WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
THE BEGINNINGS OF THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS DEVELOPING AROUND
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM TLH TO FPY AND CTY OF
REDUCED VSBYS OR LOW STRATUS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH EXPANSION FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE IFR TO LIFR AT ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING NOW AND OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND PERSISTING INTO MID MORNING. POCKETS OF VLIFR
AT TIMES FROM ROUGHLY 10-14Z WITH THE HIGHEST PROBS AT INLAND
TERMINALS. ONCE THE DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
LATER IN THE MORNING, VFR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 150 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK WITH WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY BY
THIS AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING
THE DAY. STRONG TO NEAR GALE SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH SEAS AROUND 8 FEET IN OUR OFFSHORE WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL
THEN BEGIN TO RELAX LATE MONDAY HEADING INTO TUESDAY WITH MORE
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS RETURNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
LOW DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY, INCREASING
TRANSPORT WINDS TO 20-25 MPH FROM THE NORTH AND DISPERSIONS INTO A
MODERATE RANGE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE IS ABOUT A 40% CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN OUR SE ALABAMA DISTRICTS. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY TRANSWINDS
AROUND 20 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MONDAY, RESULTING IN MINRH VALUES BETWEEN 20
AND 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 150 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS A 10 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. HOWEVER, THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 72 49 67 30 / 0 0 20 0
PANAMA CITY 71 55 67 31 / 0 10 20 0
DOTHAN 72 51 61 26 / 0 40 20 0
ALBANY 69 51 60 25 / 0 30 20 0
VALDOSTA 72 47 67 26 / 0 0 20 0
CROSS CITY 74 48 75 32 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 68 55 68 35 / 0 0 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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