557
FXUS62 KTAE 140649
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
149 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 145 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
- ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND,
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
- A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW
25 DEGREES IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- A FREEZE WARNING FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW 32 DEGREES IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE EMERALD COAST AND COASTAL FRANKLIN COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA FOR WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 15 AND 20
DEGREES IN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA AND 16 TO 24 DEGREES FOR FLORIDA.
- A FREEZE WATCH FOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 25 DEGREES IS IN
EFFECT FOR OUR ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE
COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR OUR SE
ALABAMA COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT. THE
RAINFALL WILL AMOUNT TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. FOG IS
EXPECTED AGAIN THIS MORNING FOR THE FL PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND IN
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES AND
SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID- MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP IN SE ALABAMA JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
BREEZY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
25- 30 MPH. IT IS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OCCURING DURING THE MORNING HOURS
FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THAT RECEIVE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
FIRST. THAT WILL MAKE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY FOR
TODAY.
TONIGHT, TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S,
AND NEAR 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE WHY
A HARD FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE TO VALUES AT OR BELOW 25
DEGREES IS THE CRITERIA FOR THE HAZARD ISSUANCE. A FREEZE WARNING
(PART OF THE FREEZE PROGRAM) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EMERALD
COAST AND COASTAL FRANKLIN COUNTY FOR THEIR FIRST EXPECTED FREEZE
OF THE SEASON.
IN ADDITION TO COLD TEMPERATURES, THE WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH, AND
STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH WILL CREATE A WIND CHILL (FEELS-
LIKE TEMPERATURE) IN THE LOW 20S DOWN TO THE TEENS. THESE ARE
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS, SO A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE
IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
MONDAY MORNING: TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S,
HOWEVER THE WIND CHILL VALUES EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL BE IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ACTIVE
THROUGH AROUND MID-MORNING TO COVER THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW 25
DEGREES IN OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES.
DURING THE DAY MONDAY, TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH OUT OF THE
40S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN THE
FL PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND CAN SEE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
WINDS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WILL BE A GENTLE BREEZE AROUND 10-15
MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING: CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO POTENTIALLY "CRASH" IN SOME LOCATIONS. FORECAST
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. A FREEZE WATCH FOR A HARD
FREEZE HAS BEEN FOR OUR AL AND GA, AND INLAND FL PANHANDLE
COUNTIES WHERE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. FROST IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AREA-WIDE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
A WARMING TREND WILL START DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPS
RISING INTO THE 60S AND TO THE LOW 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
WHICH WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-DECEMBER. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK, WHICH
COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
AND SUPPOSED LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN AT THE TIME, POPS HAVE BEEN
LIMITED TO 30%.
LATE IN THE WEEK, THERE LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. AT THIS
TIME, THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL HOLD
TOGETHER FOR THE SE UNITED STATES AND WHAT IMPACTS (IF ANY) THERE
COULD BE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL MARCH THROUGH THE TRI-STATE REGION TODAY. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PANHANDLE EAST INTO THE FL BIG BEND. AT
TLH/ECP, HAVE IFR/LIFR CONDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 08-09Z AND
PERSISTING INTO MID MORNING OR 14-15Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF DENSE FOG
(1/4SM FG) IS POSSIBLE PRE DAWN AT BOTH LOCATIONS. AS THE FRONT
MOVES IN, MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE JUST AHEAD AND
BEHIND WITH SOME -RA AT DHN AND PERHAPS VCSH AT ABY. THE RAIN WILL
BE DECREASING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT INTO OUR AREA WITH THOSE TWO
TERMINALS STANDING THE BETTER CHANCES. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE,
EXPECT WINDS TO CLOCK TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY WITH 25-30
KNOTS COMMON THROUGH AFTER SUNSET (01-03Z) THOUGH ELEVATED WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AFTERWARDS AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 145 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR WATERS THIS MORNING,
SHARPLY TURNING OUR WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS IN WATERS
WEST OF APALACHICOLA. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR
EASTERN WATERS AND THE WATERS OF ST. ANDREWS BAY. ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE GALE WARNING FOR WATERS WEST OF
APALACHICOLA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO THE GULF WATERS BY EARLY MID-WEEK WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ALABAMA WIREGRASS AND FL
PANHANDLE REGIONS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT BUT,
NOT ENOUGH ACCUMULATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR A "WETTING RAIN". FOR THE
FL BIG BEND REGION, PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOG
MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL
SHARPLY TURN OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15-20 MPH,
AND GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH. DISPERSIONS TODAY WILL BE FAIR TO
MODERATE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON MONDAY AS THEY SHIFT
NORTHEASTERLY WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING IN THE MID-20S AND
WARMING TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S, LOW 50S FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND SE BIG BEND. DISPERSIONS WILL BE FAIR BUT MINRH VALUES WILL BE
LOW IN THE LOW TO MID 20S% FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE
SE BIG BEND WILL HAVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 40%. THE SURFACE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, ALLOWING FOR CALM
WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO LOW DISPERSIONS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 145 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING IN
OUR ALABAMA COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN RETURNS BY MIDWEEK, BUT POTENTIAL AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW.
OVERALL, RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK ARE LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH. NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 66 30 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 67 31 52 33 / 10 0 0 0
DOTHAN 61 25 47 24 / 10 0 0 0
ALBANY 62 25 46 22 / 10 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 66 26 48 26 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 74 32 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 67 34 50 38 / 10 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 10 AM EST
/9 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-
115-118-127-128-134-326-426.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
FLZ007-009>011-013.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ TO 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/
MONDAY FOR FLZ108-112-114-115.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ114.
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR GAZ120>131-
142>148-155>161.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR ALZ065>069.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST MONDAY FOR
ALZ065>069.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ALZ065>069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
FOR GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
GMZ735.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ751-
752-770-772.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR GMZ751-752-770-772.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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