772
FXUS62 KTAE 221714
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1214 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TODAY NORTH OF US 82 IN SOUTH
GEORGIA DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND BREEZY WINDS. THOSE WHO PLAN TO
DO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION.
- HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE GULF
WATERS DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY BREEZES. MARINERS SHOULD USE
CAUTION, ESPECIALLY THOSE WHO OPERATE SMALLER VESSELS.
- FOG BECOMES INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS
LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS DAY. THOSE COMMUTING OR TRAVELING DURING
THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS OR NIGHTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SLOW
DOWNS OR DELAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND APPALACHIANS, WHICH HELP SURGE SOME
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-10. YOU
CAN ALREADY SEE THIS LOOKING AT SURFACE OBS. ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF SOUTH CAROLINA, DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE TEENS AND
20S, AND THAT WILL ADVECT INTO OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ACROSS GEORGIA GIVEN THE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND AND WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC BY TONIGHT, AND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE AREA. IN FACT,
DEW POINTS WILL ALSO QUICKLY REBOUND FROM THE 20S AND 30S THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE 40S AND 50S TONIGHT. WITH THIS RETURN IN
MOISTURE, SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA INTO
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
WARM, MOIST AIR LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITTING
ON TOP OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. NEAR-RECORD STRENGTH RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MID-WEEK,
GRADUALLY DAMPENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES ON
A CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND A FEW 80S FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS DAY. RECORDS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY ARE IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S. NO RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES, BUT EVEN THEN, RAIN
CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 20 PERCENT.
HOWEVER, FOR THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS, FOG BECOMES INCREASINGLY
LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. THOSE WHO ARE COMMUTING IN THE
UPCOMING MORNINGS OR WHO ARE PLANNING ON NIGHTTIME OR MORNING TRAVEL
AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY AS SOME OF
THE FOG COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZE. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO FOG AND LOW CEILING POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE ELECTED TO INTRODUCE MVFR
VISIBILITY/CEILING TEMPO GROUPS AT MOST TAF SITES TO CAPTURE THIS
POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THEM OCCURING IS ONLY MEDIUM,
OR 40 TO 50 PERCENT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
WHILE MOST GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN ON WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS,
HAVE MAINTAINED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS SINCE IT IS
BORDERLINE. AND THERE IS STILL A MEDIUM (40%) CHANCE OF REACHING
ADVISORY- LEVEL WINDS.
FROM CWF SYNOPSIS...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN RESPONSE.
THIS WILL BE RATHER SHORT DURATION AS WINDS BECOME GENTLE TO
MODERATE OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD LATE WEEK, LEADING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. SOME SEA
FOG BECOMES POSSIBLE OVER APALACHEE BAY TUESDAY, AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
A WEDGE OF MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES
DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 20S GENERALLY NORTH OF US 82 THIS AFTERNOON.
COUPLED WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 20 MPH, ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GEORGIA
ZONES NORTH OF US 82. HIGHER FUEL MOISTURE, HOWEVER, IS ENOUGH TO
AVOID RED FLAG WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, WHILE WINDS WILL
BE SIMILAR, MIN RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
DISPERSIONS WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR IS
SHORT-LIVED AS EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY TO THE 90S/NEAR 100 IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.
DISPERSIONS WILL BE POOR ON TUESDAY, THEN POOR TO FAIR ON WEDNESDAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVER OUR
AREA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SEVERE TO EXTREME
DROUGHT PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 69 51 75 53 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 71 53 72 54 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 67 48 73 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 66 46 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 69 48 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 74 52 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 67 56 68 54 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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