888
FXUS62 KTAE 230259
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
959 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 954 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
- FOG BECOMES INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS
LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS DAY. THOSE COMMUTING OR TRAVELING DURING
THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS OR NIGHTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SLOW
DOWNS OR DELAYS.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 10-15F ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS. AS THIS
WIND GRADUALLY DECREASES OVERNIGHT WE'LL SEE TEMPS DROP TOWARDS
THE OVERNIGHT FORECASTED LOW TEMP. NO MAJOR UPDATES APPEAR
NECESSARY THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WITH A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW THROUGH THE TRI-STATE
AREA. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE WIREGRASS
GEORGIA COUNTIES, TO 40S AND LOW 50S OVER OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES.
THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WHILE RIDGING
WILL STRETCH SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW A RETURN OF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING BACK
INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FOLLOWING THIS, HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WEDNESDAY AND MEANDERS IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALOFT, AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PLAINS TILL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
THEN BREAK DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES.
AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SET UP CLOSE BY, RELATIVELY STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS, LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EACH NIGHT, AND
MOISTURE RETURNING, THERE IS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY LEADING INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF DENSE
FOG ALSO A POSSIBILITY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING
(THOUGH PROBS ARE LOW TO MEDIUM AT BEST) AND FAVOR EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA EAST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA BIG BEND.
THOSE WHO ARE COMMUTING IN THE UPCOMING MORNINGS OR WHO ARE
PLANNING ON NIGHTTIME OR MORNING TRAVEL AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY AS SOME OF THE FOG COULD BE DENSE
IN SPOTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. CLIMO NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 40S FOR LOWS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZE. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO FOG AND LOW CEILING POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 123 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS
OF THE NORTHEAST GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED IN
THE NORTHERN GULF MID TO LATE WEEK CONTRIBUTING TO WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS INTO THE
WEEKEND. SEA FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS, BAYS, AND
WATERWAYS BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO LATE THIS WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 123 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER INTO THE 40-
50 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO POOR DISPERSIONS TUESDAY THEN POOR TO FAIR
ON WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 123 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE, LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 51 75 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 53 72 55 74 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 49 74 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 47 74 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 49 76 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 52 78 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 56 68 54 70 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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