691
FXUS62 KTAE 231655
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1155 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1154 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
- FOG BECOMES INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS
LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS DAY. THOSE COMMUTING OR TRAVELING DURING
THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS OR NIGHTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SLOW
DOWNS OR DELAYS.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 10-15F ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NEXT COOL DOWN
NOT LIKELY UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY WILL CONTROL THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE WEEKEND. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN US
WILL DRIFT BACK DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY
AMPLIFIES. WHILE THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGH CHRISTMAS, A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES TUESDAY EVENING
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOG. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE, COMBINED WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND
ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRY LOW-LEVELS, WILL LEAD TO HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD FOR FOG THE NEXT FEW OVERNIGHTS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR FOG APPEARS CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. AS FOR LOCATIONS, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE, AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE FURTHEST
AWAY FROM THE SUBTLE INFLUENCE OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ON
TUESDAY EVENING INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
FOG CONCERNS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SOME INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AS MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A COOL DOWN TO THE REGION
AND MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
FORECAST COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO BELOW-NORMAL LEVELS FOR A FEW DAYS. AS FOR
RAINFALL, MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOT OPTIMISTIC FOR ANY
BENEFICIAL RAINS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR FOG ARE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA TONIGHT. ELECTED TO GO WITH A
PREVAILING GROUP FOR 1/2SM AT KDHN, KECP, AND KTLH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR KDHN AND KECP FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG, WHERE THE CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. IT'S WORTH
NOTING THAT THE ENTIRE PREVAILING GROUP WITH 1/2SM COULD END UP WITH
DENSE FOG OUTSIDE OF THE TEMPO GROUP, SO THAT'LL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR IN FUTURE TAF PACKAGES. MOST OF THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BY 15-16Z, BUT A SPOT OR TWO MAY SEE IT LINGER THROUGH 17Z
WEDNESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY FOG
CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL CREATE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING MORE NORTHERLY LATER
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WITH FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. MAIN MARITIME
CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NEARSHORE WATERS AND BAYS BEGINNING TONIGHT INTO THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM DOESN'T LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR MASSES AND
ELEVATED WINDS, FIRE CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY CONCERNS THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE PERIODS
OF LOW DISPERSIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG
BEND THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE, LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 54 78 54 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 73 55 74 55 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 74 53 77 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 73 50 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 76 52 79 51 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 79 50 79 52 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 68 55 69 55 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page