360
FXUS62 KTAE 240028
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
728 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 723 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
- FOG, LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES, IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND OVER THE
NEXT FEW MORNINGS LEADING INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. THOSE COMMUTING
OR TRAVELING DURING THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS OR NIGHTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR SLOW DOWNS OR DELAYS.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 10-15F ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NEXT COOL DOWN
NOT LIKELY UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 723 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
10.3-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG AND STRATUS BEGINNING
TO SPREAD FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. JUST IN THE
LAST HOUR, THE PANAMA CITY AIRPORT (ECP) DROPPED TO 1 MILE
VISIBILITY WITH 300 FOOT CEILINGS. THIS IS ACTUALLY AHEAD OF THE
TIMING PRESENTED IN THE 21Z HRRR AND OTHER AVAILABLE PROBABILISTIC
MEMBERS, SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASED THAT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE INCREASED
CONFIDENCE, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN HALF
OF OUR REGION. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE FOG
SHOULD ADDITIONAL EXPANSION IN THE ADVISORY AREA BE NECESSARY.
CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION
OVERNIGHT. MOREOVER, THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
FOG/STRATUS DECK MAY LINGER QUITE A BIT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OR
EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THE MAIN UPDATES THIS EVENING WAS TO ADD THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HEADLINE, MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WEATHER GRIDS, AND
ADJUST THE TEMP TRACE TO MATCH EXPECTED TRENDS ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE LINGERING STRATUS LIKELY DELAYING THE WARMUP.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
THIS EVENING THEN MEANDER OVER THE GENERAL VICINITY AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY. ALOFT, A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH NORTHWEST STEERING
FLOW ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE HOLDING THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK THEN GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN THIS WEEKEND AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUPPORTING A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
THE BIGGEST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS AND MORNINGS IS
FOG AND DENSE FOG. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS TO THOSE TRAVELING FOR
THE HOLIDAYS OR OTHERWISE LOCALLY COMMUTING. EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP IN THE MID TO LATE EVENINGS AND SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE OVERNIGHT TO MID/LATE MORNING HOURS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THE
HIGHEST PROBS FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE FROM JUST WEST OF TALLAHASSEE
WESTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. SAME
IS TRUE OVERNIGHT CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY THOUGH
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE PATCHY DENSE
FOG. DENSE SEA FOG IS ALSO LIKELY THROUGH THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND
APALACHEE BAY FROM MID EVENING THROUGH LATE MORNING HOURS.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER MOVES SOUTHEAST, ALTHOUGH FOG IS STILL PROBABLE, THE
PROBABILITY OF DENSE FOG DECREASES.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WHILE LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THIS IS 10-15F ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ONCE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD, A 1035MB HIGH SURGES SOUTH AND A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS TOWARDS THE GULF. THIS WILL DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
UNTIL THEN, IF YOU LIKE THE WARM WEATHER, ENJOY!
LONG TERM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
PESSIMISTIC TAF FORECAST THIS CYCLE WITH SPLIT CHANNEL IMAGERY
ALREADY SHOWING STRATUS/FOG, LIKELY AT IFR LEVELS, MOVING NEAR
ECP AT TAF ISSUANCE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PROBABILITY OF
SURFACE VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE OVERNIGHT AT
ECP/DHN/TLH WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES AT ABY/VLD. AS A RESULT, WENT
FOR DENSE FOG AT ECP/DHN/TLH FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT UNTIL 14Z
WHEN SURFACE VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE. IFR CIGS IN THE MORNING
WILL ONLY GRADUALLY IMPROVE, BECOMING VFR BY 16Z-17Z ALL SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 153 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
MAIN MARITIME CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS AND BAYS BEGINNING TONIGHT INTO
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE, FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAILING. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
DOESN'T LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 153 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR MASSES AND ELEVATED
WINDS, FIRE CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE ONLY CONCERNS THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE PERIODS OF
LOW DISPERSIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 153 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE, LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 57 76 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 58 70 55 73 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 56 76 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 52 78 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 55 79 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 54 78 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 56 69 55 70 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
FLZ007>015-108-112-114-115-326-426.
GA...NONE.
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
GMZ735-751-752-755.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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