279
FXUS62 KTAE 242347
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
647 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
- FOG, LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES, IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND OVER THE
NEXT FEW MORNINGS INTO THE WEEKEND. THOSE COMMUTING OR TRAVELING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OR IN THE MORNING SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR SLOW DOWNS OR DELAYS.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
10-15F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NEXT
COOL DOWN NOT LIKELY UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
RUDOLPH! ... RUDOLPH!!!! IT'S YOUR TIME TO SHINE! IT'S TIME TO USE
YOUR RED NOSE AND LEAD SANTA'S SLEIGH TONIGHT INTO THE TRI-STATE
AREA! BECAUSE WE ARE EXPECTING ONE FOGGY CHRISTMAS EVE! AND, YOU
KNOW HOW THE LYRICS GO ... 'RUDOLPH, WITH YOUR NOSE SO BRIGHT ...
WON'T YOU GUIDE MY SLEIGH TONIGHT?'
YES, IT WILL BE ONE FOGGY CHRISTMAS EVE, AND POSSIBLY THE NEXT
SEVERAL MORNINGS AS WELL. THE SET UP WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY, LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS. FOG APPEARS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THEN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EAST AND
NORTH FROM THERE OVERNIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. ANTICIPATE
DENSE FOG ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL.
UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US WILL
ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN AS A TANDEM OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK (LATEST TRENDS HAVE SLOWED THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO LATER MONDAY WITH GFS/ECMWF IN RELATIVE
AGREEMENT). BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
MOVE IN.
UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE, TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WHILE LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S. AFTER THE PASSAGE, HIGHS ONLY REACH THE 50S
WHILE LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
'WRAPPING' THIS UP, IT COULD BE A RATHER HISTORIC FLIGHT TONIGHT
WITH RUDOLPH ON THE P1 SPOT LEADING THE OTHER REINDEER. I BET YOU
KNOW THE NAMES OF THE OTHER 8 REINDEER! ALL GUIDING BIG RED 1 ON
HIS ANNUAL GIFT DROP ACROSS THE GLOBE!
OH!, AND SHOULD YOU BE OUT AND ABOUT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
AND NOT TUCKED AWAY AND NESTLED IN YOUR BED WITH VISIONS OF
SUGAR- PLUMS DANCING IN YOUR HEAD, AND YOU ENCOUNTER FOG, PLEASE
SLOW DOWN, USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS, AND INCREASE FOLLOWING
DISTANCE WITH OTHER VEHICLES.
MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS. ALREADY SEEING LIFR CONDITIONS APPROACHING ECP AT TAF
ISSUANCE BASED ON SATELLITE ALONG WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM NEARBY
PAM. EXPECT EXTENDED DURATION LIFR AT ECP/DHN OVERNIGHT WITH
SHORTER PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR REACHING TLH/ABY LATER IN THE
NIGHT TIME HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE, SHOULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY
IMPROVEMENTS, THOUGH THE STRATUS AT IFR/LIFR LEVELS SHOULD LINGER
INTO THE 15Z-17Z TIME RANGE AT DHN/ECP. THIS IS MAINLY A BLEND OF
THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND PERSISTENCE, AS THE PATTERN HAS CHANGED
LITTLE. VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 17Z ALL SITES ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 208 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST IN THE LATE EVENING TO
MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND BAYS.
OTHERWISE, FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAILING. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
DOESN'T LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 208 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OR
NORTHEAST GULF WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WILL EXPERIENCE AFTERNOON LOW DISPERSIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE
DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE DISTRICTS WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD.
WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS WITH LOCALLY
DENSE FOG AS WELL AS PERSISTING INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH BELOW-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL TEMPER SOME FIRE CONCERNS, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
AND LOW RHS COULD BRING SOME FIRE CONCERNS INTO THE FORECAST NEXT
WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 208 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHEAST US TO NORTHEAST GULF. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CURRENT PROSPECT FOR RAINFALL
IS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEREFORE, LITTLE
TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 54 76 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 55 72 57 72 / 0 0 10 0
DOTHAN 53 76 52 75 / 0 0 10 0
ALBANY 51 76 51 75 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 51 78 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 51 78 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 56 70 56 69 / 0 0 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
FLZ007>015-108-112-114-115-326-426.
GA...NONE.
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
GMZ735-751-752-755.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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