881
FXUS62 KTAE 251853
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
153 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
- FOG, LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES, IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
MORNINGS INTO THE WEEKEND. THOSE COMMUTING OR TRAVELING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OR IN THE MORNING SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
SLOW DOWNS OR DELAYS.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 10-15F ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT TUESDAY AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, BUT LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL TURN OUR SURFACE WINDS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WILL KEEP THE NIGHTLY INTO MID MORNING DENSE
FOG SETUP GOING, ATLEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG WILL RESIDE FROM TALLAHASSEE TO
DOTHAN AND LOCATIONS WESTWARD. THE SREF, HREF, AND REFS ARE ALL IN
THAT GENERAL VICINITY WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE (50-80%) AS
WELL AS POSSIBLY THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED FOG BOTH MORNINGS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVERTOP MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
BREAKS DOWN BEGINNING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH
REACHES THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH MONDAY AND BRING AN END TO THE RECENT UNSEASONABLY
WARM STRETCH HEADING INTO MID WEEK. HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE 70S
MONDAY AS THE FRONT WILL GET HERE IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN THE
COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY HIGHS
WILL BE THE BIG CHANGE AS WE REPLACE OUR SHORTS AND SHORT SLEEVES
FOR JACKETS AND PANTS. READINGS TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S, A 20-25F DOWNWARD CHANGE FROM HIGHS MONDAY. A
LIGHT FREEZE IN THE WIREGRASS IS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
THE NEAR-SURFACE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOIST AND STABLE, WITH
DRY AIR ABOVE. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OTHER RECENT DAYS, SO THE
PERSISTENT TREND OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR FOG ON FRI
MORNING WILL BE AT ABY AND VLD, WHERE FOG/MIST WILL BE SHALLOWER.
ELSEWHERE AT TLH, ECP AND DHN, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH, AND FOG WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEEPER.
WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE, AM DELAYING FORECAST ONSET OF VISIBILITY
REDUCTION BY A FEW HOURS, SINCE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO SEA FOG
ALONG THE BEACHES RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER, IF SEA FOG WERE TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON, THEN FOG WOULD ARRIVE AT ECP A FEW
HOURS SOONER THAN INDICATED, I.E. WITHIN 1-3 HOURS OF SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST IN THE LATE EVENING TO
MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND BAYS.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE GULF WATERS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BECOME STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY. ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OR
NORTHEAST GULF WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WILL EXPERIENCE AFTERNOON LOW DISPERSIONS THROUGH SATURDAY
WHILE DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE DISTRICTS WILL BE FAIR TO
GOOD. WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE PASSAGE.
ALTHOUGH BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL TEMPER SOME FIRE CONCERNS,
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RHS COULD BRING SOME FIRE CONCERNS
INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHEAST US TO NORTHEAST GULF. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL CHANCES HAVE COME UP
SLIGHTLY THIS CYCLE (UP TO 40-50%) FOR MONDAY, HOWEVER, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND WILL NOT HAVE ANY APPRECIABLE
IMPACTS ON THE ONGOING DROUGHT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL IMPACTS
FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 53 75 58 77 / 0 0 10 10
PANAMA CITY 57 72 61 74 / 0 0 10 10
DOTHAN 53 75 58 77 / 0 0 10 0
ALBANY 52 75 57 77 / 0 0 10 0
VALDOSTA 54 76 57 77 / 0 0 0 10
CROSS CITY 53 77 55 76 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 57 70 60 71 / 0 0 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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