284
FXUS62 KTAE 261735
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1235 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
- FOG, LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES, IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
MORNINGS. THOSE COMMUTING OR TRAVELING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OR IN THE MORNING SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SLOW DOWNS OR
DELAYS.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 10-15F ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT TUESDAY AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, BUT LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
A FAIRLY PERSISTENT FORECAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE COOL GULF WATERS WILL
LEAD TO THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS EXPERIENCING WIDESPREAD FOG, AT
TIMES DENSE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A STRONG
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, BLASTING COLD
CONTINENTAL POLAR (CP) AIR FROM CANADA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER FOR THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE
NORTH, LEADING TO VERY MINIMAL FORCING FOR ASCENT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL EQUATE TO MINIMAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH COLD DRY AIR IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE, GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. POST-FRONTAL, ON
TUESDAY, DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 50S, WITH
WIDESPREAD UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. A SLOW WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S FOLLOWS THRU THURSDAY. LIKEWISE, OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
PLUNGE INTO THE 30S ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY. WIND CHILLS LOOK TO BE
COLDEST WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD FEEL-LIKE TEMPS IN THE
LOW 20S. BE SURE TO COME BACK FOR UPDATES AS THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND MAY CHANGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY PREVAIL MORE OFTEN THAN NOT THIS AFTERNOON AS
A BIT MORE LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE REGION ON THE
HEELS OF A WESTERLY BREEZE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. NOT QUITE CONFIDENT
IN THE WINDOW FOR WHEN THE DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY FOR
KECP, KDHN, AND KTLH, BUT SOME IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE STRATUS/FOG MAY REACH KABY AND KVLD,
SO INCLUDED SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR THEM EARLY SATURDAY. FOG IS
FORECAST TO LIFT TOMORROW MORNING TO AN IFR TO MVFR STRATUS DECK
THAT LIKELY LINGERS MUCH OF THE MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST IN THE LATE EVENING TO MORNING HOURS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND BAYS.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE GULF WATERS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BECOME STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY. ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OR
NORTHEAST GULF WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WILL EXPERIENCE AFTERNOON LOW DISPERSIONS THROUGH SATURDAY
WHILE DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE DISTRICTS WILL BE FAIR TO
GOOD. WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE PASSAGE.
ALTHOUGH BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL TEMPER SOME FIRE CONCERNS,
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RHS COULD BRING SOME FIRE CONCERNS
INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK,
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO FLOODING CONCERNS. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL
THEREFORE PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 59 76 60 / 0 0 10 10
PANAMA CITY 72 62 74 61 / 0 10 10 10
DOTHAN 73 61 76 59 / 0 0 10 10
ALBANY 75 60 76 60 / 0 0 0 10
VALDOSTA 77 58 77 59 / 0 0 10 0
CROSS CITY 77 56 75 58 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 70 61 72 60 / 0 10 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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