018
FXUS62 KTAE 261921
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
221 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
- ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SLOW DOWN DUE TO SUDDEN
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
- AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER, SHARPLY COLDER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND LAST FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THIS
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE EASTERN U.S. BEGINNING MONDAY AND THIS WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THAT DAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER. A BRIEF LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER,
WHEN THE WIND IS FACTORED IN, WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S. THIS MEETS COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA. TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY TUESDAY NIGHT.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT AFTER THAT, IT WILL STILL BE
CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S EACH MORNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY PREVAIL MORE OFTEN THAN NOT THIS AFTERNOON AS
A BIT MORE LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE REGION ON THE
HEELS OF A WESTERLY BREEZE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. NOT QUITE CONFIDENT
IN THE WINDOW FOR WHEN THE DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY FOR
KECP, KDHN, AND KTLH, BUT SOME IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE STRATUS/FOG MAY REACH KABY AND KVLD,
SO INCLUDED SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR THEM EARLY SATURDAY. FOG IS
FORECAST TO LIFT TOMORROW MORNING TO AN IFR TO MVFR STRATUS DECK
THAT LIKELY LINGERS MUCH OF THE MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WINDS
WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND IT. THESE ELEVATED
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING BELOW CAUTIONARY
LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
FOGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. MUCH DRYER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AFTER A MONDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT
RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM BEING REACHED, BUT RH WILL DROP INTO THE
20S FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY
AS WELL.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN DROUGHT WITH PORTIONS OF THE FL
BIG BEND STILL SUFFERING FROM EXTREME DROUGHT. WHILE SOME RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH MONDAY'S COLD FRONT, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 59 76 60 77 / 0 10 10 10
PANAMA CITY 62 74 61 74 / 10 10 10 10
DOTHAN 61 76 59 77 / 0 10 10 0
ALBANY 60 76 60 77 / 0 0 10 0
VALDOSTA 58 77 59 78 / 0 10 0 10
CROSS CITY 56 75 58 77 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 61 72 60 70 / 10 10 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM....WOOL
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
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