206
FXUS62 KTAE 271735
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1235 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
- ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SLOW DOWN DUE TO SUDDEN
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
- AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER, SHARPLY COLDER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND LAST FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW, KEEPING
TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WIDESPREAD FOG THE
NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS, AT TIMES DENSE. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A
STRONG COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, BLASTING COLD
CONTINENTAL POLAR (CP) AIR FROM CANADA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER FOR THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTH,
LEADING TO VERY MINIMAL FORCING FOR ASCENT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THIS WILL EQUATE TO MINIMAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH COLD DRY AIR IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE, GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. POST-FRONTAL, ON
TUESDAY, DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 50S, WITH
WIDESPREAD UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. A SLOW WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S FOLLOWS THRU FRIDAY. LIKEWISE, OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
PLUNGE INTO THE 30S ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FRIDAY. WIND CHILLS LOOK TO BE
COLDEST WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD FEEL-LIKE TEMPS IN THE
LOW 20S AND POSSIBLY UPPER TEENS. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
A STUBBORN STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS/MORNINGS, ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS ANTICIPATED. HAVE LEANED
A LITTLE EARLIER FOR KECP AS WE'VE BEEN A TAD SLOW TO BRING
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS TO THAT TERMINAL AS OF LATE, SO ATTEMPTED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE. ELSEWHERE, KTLH IS ALSO
FORECAST TO SEE VISIBILITY DROP TO 1/4SM OVERNIGHT. HAVE ELECTED
TO GO WITH 1/2SM AT KDHN, KABY, AND KVLD, BUT READILY ADMIT A
PERIOD OF 1/4SM IS ON THE TABLE.
FOG SLOWLY LIFTS TO A LIFR/IFR STRATUS DECK IN THE MORNING WITH
SLOWLY LIFTING CEILINGS THROUGH THE MORNING SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST TODAY BEFORE TURNING A BIT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AND SHIFT TO BEING OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS BEHIND IT. THESE ELEVATED WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE DROPPING BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OR
NORTHEAST GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. POCKETS OF LOW
DISPERSION ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD FOG IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS WITH LOCALLY DENSE
FOG POSSIBLE. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH BELOW-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL TEMPER SOME FIRE CONCERNS, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
AND LOW RHS COULD BRING SOME FIRE CONCERNS INTO THE FORECAST NEXT
WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK,
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO FLOODING CONCERNS. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL
THEREFORE PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 77 60 76 60 / 10 0 10 10
PANAMA CITY 74 62 74 60 / 0 10 0 20
DOTHAN 77 60 76 57 / 0 0 0 20
ALBANY 76 59 76 58 / 0 0 0 10
VALDOSTA 77 60 77 58 / 0 0 10 0
CROSS CITY 76 58 76 56 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 72 61 70 61 / 10 10 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EST /1 AM CST/ TO 10 AM EST /9 AM
CST/ SUNDAY FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-
127-128-134-326-426.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ121-123-
142>145-155>160.
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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