149
FXUS62 KTAE 271914
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
214 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
- DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SLOW DOWN DUE TO SUDDEN
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
- AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER, SHARPLY COLDER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND LAST FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THIS
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY REACHING THE
MID 70S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
BEGINNING MONDAY AND THIS WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON THAT DAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL TURN SHARPLY
COLDER. A BRIEF LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, WHEN THE WIND IS
FACTORED IN, WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S WITH SOME
UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE NORTH OF A DOTHAN TO ALBANY LINE. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.
ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT AFTER THAT, IT WILL STILL BE CHILLY
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S EACH MORNING. WHILE THERE IS NOT GREAT MODEL
AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE WEEK BRINING A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES IN SOME AREAS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
A STUBBORN STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS/MORNINGS, ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS ANTICIPATED. HAVE LEANED
A LITTLE EARLIER FOR KECP AS WE'VE BEEN A TAD SLOW TO BRING
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS TO THAT TERMINAL AS OF LATE, SO ATTEMPTED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE. ELSEWHERE, KTLH IS ALSO
FORECAST TO SEE VISIBILITY DROP TO 1/4SM OVERNIGHT. HAVE ELECTED
TO GO WITH 1/2SM AT KDHN, KABY, AND KVLD, BUT READILY ADMIT A
PERIOD OF 1/4SM IS ON THE TABLE.
FOG SLOWLY LIFTS TO A LIFR/IFR STRATUS DECK IN THE MORNING WITH
SLOWLY LIFTING CEILINGS THROUGH THE MORNING SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST TODAY BEFORE TURNING A BIT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
EAST OF APALACHICOLA. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS BEHIND IT. THESE ELEVATED WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE DROPPING BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
MUCH DRYER AIR WILL ARRIVE AFTER A MONDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM BEING
REACHED, BUT RH WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AS WELL.
FOG CONCERNS AND OTHER REMARKS...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, MAINLY SOUTH OF A VALDOSTA
TO ALBANY LINE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN DROUGHT WITH PORTIONS OF THE FL
BIG BEND STILL SUFFERING FROM EXTREME DROUGHT. WHILE SOME RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH MONDAY'S COLD FRONT, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 60 76 60 74 / 0 10 10 60
PANAMA CITY 62 74 60 72 / 10 0 20 50
DOTHAN 60 76 57 68 / 0 0 20 40
ALBANY 59 76 58 69 / 0 0 10 30
VALDOSTA 60 77 58 75 / 0 10 0 60
CROSS CITY 58 76 56 76 / 0 0 0 20
APALACHICOLA 61 70 61 71 / 10 0 10 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EST /1 AM CST/ TO 10 AM EST /9 AM
CST/ SUNDAY FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-
127-128-134-326-426.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ121-123-
142>145-155>160.
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM....WOOL
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
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