167
FXUS62 KTAE 272343
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
643 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
- DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SLOW DOWN DUE TO SUDDEN
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
- AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER, SHARPLY COLDER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND LAST FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEAR NECESSARY.
FOG IS STILL EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT, AND THE
CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. THE EVENING GUIDANCE
ALSO INDICATES A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF MARINE DENSE FOG FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS AND APALACHEE BAY, SO WE'VE HOISTED A MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS WELL.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THIS
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY REACHING THE
MID 70S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
BEGINNING MONDAY AND THIS WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON THAT DAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL TURN SHARPLY
COLDER. A BRIEF LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, WHEN THE WIND IS
FACTORED IN, WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S WITH SOME
UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE NORTH OF A DOTHAN TO ALBANY LINE. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.
ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT AFTER THAT, IT WILL STILL BE CHILLY
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S EACH MORNING. WHILE THERE IS NOT GREAT MODEL
AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE WEEK BRINING A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES IN SOME AREAS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN AGAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. IN GENERAL, IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE WITH 1/4SM VISIBILITY MOST LIKELY AT KECP AND KTLH. FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING ON SUNDAY
WITH VFR RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS, APALACHEE BAY, AND ST ANDREWS BAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND IT. THESE ELEVATED WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS
BY WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE AFTER A MONDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM BEING
REACHED, BUT RH WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AS WELL.
FOG CONCERNS AND OTHER REMARKS...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, MAINLY SOUTH OF A VALDOSTA
TO ALBANY LINE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN DROUGHT WITH PORTIONS OF THE FL
BIG BEND STILL SUFFERING FROM EXTREME DROUGHT. WHILE SOME RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH MONDAY'S COLD FRONT, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 60 76 60 74 / 0 10 10 60
PANAMA CITY 62 74 60 72 / 10 0 20 50
DOTHAN 60 76 57 68 / 0 0 20 40
ALBANY 59 76 58 69 / 0 0 10 30
VALDOSTA 60 77 58 75 / 0 10 0 60
CROSS CITY 58 76 56 76 / 0 0 0 20
APALACHICOLA 61 70 61 71 / 10 0 10 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EST /1 AM CST/ TO 10 AM EST /9 AM
CST/ SUNDAY FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-
127-128-134-326-426.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ120>123-
142>145-155>160.
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EST /1 AM CST/ TO 10 AM EST /9 AM
CST/ SUNDAY FOR GMZ730-735-751-752-755-765-775.
UPDATE...DVD
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM....WOOL
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...DVD/WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
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