812
FXUS62 KTAE 280537
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1237 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
- DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SLOW DOWN DUE TO SUDDEN
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
- AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER, SHARPLY COLDER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND LAST FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THIS
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY REACHING THE
MID 70S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
BEGINNING MONDAY AND THIS WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON THAT DAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL TURN SHARPLY
COLDER. A BRIEF LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, WHEN THE WIND IS
FACTORED IN, WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S WITH SOME
UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE NORTH OF A DOTHAN TO ALBANY LINE. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.
ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT AFTER THAT, IT WILL STILL BE CHILLY
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S EACH MORNING. WHILE THERE IS NOT GREAT MODEL
AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE WEEK BRINING A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES IN SOME AREAS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS AGAIN THROUGH
MID MORNING. IN GENERAL, IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE WITH 1/4SM VISIBILITY LIKELY. FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH VFR RETURNING BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS, APALACHEE BAY, AND ST ANDREWS BAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND IT. THESE ELEVATED WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS
BY WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE AFTER A MONDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM BEING
REACHED, BUT RH WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AS WELL.
FOG CONCERNS AND OTHER REMARKS...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, MAINLY SOUTH OF A VALDOSTA
TO ALBANY LINE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN DROUGHT WITH PORTIONS OF THE FL
BIG BEND STILL SUFFERING FROM EXTREME DROUGHT. WHILE SOME RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH MONDAY'S COLD FRONT, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 60 74 35 / 0 10 70 0
PANAMA CITY 73 60 72 35 / 0 30 60 0
DOTHAN 75 57 68 31 / 0 20 50 0
ALBANY 75 59 69 31 / 0 10 40 0
VALDOSTA 77 58 74 33 / 0 0 70 0
CROSS CITY 77 56 75 36 / 0 0 20 0
APALACHICOLA 70 61 71 37 / 0 10 50 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
426.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ120>131-
142>148-155>161.
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ730-735-751-752-755-765-775.
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM....WOOL
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
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