634
FXUS62 KTAE 281737
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1237 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
- DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND AND
SOUTHERN GA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO SLOW DOWN DUE TO SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
- AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER, SHARPLY COLDER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND LAST FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
ENJOY ONE LAST PLEASANT, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE, DAY TODAY BEFORE
AN ARCTIC BLAST TOMORROW. FOG THIS MORNING MAY TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR
UP AS IT'LL BE DENSER THAN IT HAS BEEN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS. EXPECT
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION, BLASTING COLD CONTINENTAL POLAR (CP) AIR FROM CANADA ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FOR THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
WELL OFF TO THE NORTH, LEADING TO VERY MINIMAL FORCING FOR ASCENT AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL EQUATE TO MINIMAL RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH COLD DRY AIR IN ITS WAKE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM, HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURN CURRENTLY DOESN'T
APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO BE MUCH OF ANYTHING. WE'LL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THE MODELS PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
POST-FRONTAL, ON TUESDAY, DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE MID 50S, WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. A SLOW WARM UP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOLLOWS THRU SATURDAY. LIKEWISE, OVERNIGHT
LOWS LOOK TO PLUNGE INTO THE 30S ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE 20S
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SATURDAY. WIND
CHILLS LOOK TO BE COLDEST WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD FEEL-
LIKE TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S AND POSSIBLY UPPER TEENS. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
IFR CEILINGS LINGER OVER KDHN, KABY, AND KECP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
SHOULD LIFT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE FOR KTLH AND KECP, WHERE
WINDS WILL BE A BIT CALMER.
THE FRONT THEN BARRELS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT, WHICH IS REPRESENTED BY THE
PROB30S FOR EACH SITE. WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS
POSSIBLE WITH LATER TAF PACKAGES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH
AREAS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS,
APALACHEE BAY, AND ST ANDREWS BAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
QUICKLY AND SHIFT TO BEING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND IT. THESE ELEVATED WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
THROUGH TODAY. POCKETS OF LOW DISPERSION ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FL BIG BEND. LOCALLY DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ONE MORE NIGHT, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FL BIG
BEND AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA TONIGHT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL TEMPER SOME FIRE
CONCERNS, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RHS IN THE 20%-30% RANGE
COULD BRING SOME FIRE CONCERNS INTO THE FORECAST AROUND MID-WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK,
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO FLOODING CONCERNS. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL
THEREFORE PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 76 60 72 34 / 0 0 50 0
PANAMA CITY 74 60 72 34 / 0 30 40 0
DOTHAN 75 55 67 30 / 0 30 30 0
ALBANY 74 59 69 30 / 10 10 30 0
VALDOSTA 77 58 74 32 / 0 0 60 0
CROSS CITY 76 56 76 35 / 0 0 20 0
APALACHICOLA 70 62 70 36 / 0 10 30 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ730-735-751-752-755-765-775.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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