467
FXUS62 KTAE 282011
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
311 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
- DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND, MAINLY EAST OF
TALLAHASSEE. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SLOW DOWN DUE TO
SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
- AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER, SHARPLY COLDER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND LASTING FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD WEATHER SHELTERING WILL NEED TO
BE CONSIDERED.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING A TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. BEGINNING MONDAY. THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA ON THAT DAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER. A BRIEF
LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILLS IN THE LOWER 20S WITH SOME UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE NORTH OF
A DOTHAN TO ALBANY LINE. SOME AREAS WILL REACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA (WIND CHILL READING OF 20 DEGREES OR LOWER IN AL AND GA AND
25 OR LOWER IN FL). TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S INLAND. ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT AFTER THAT, IT
WILL STILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS.
BY THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN, BUT
ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES THIS TIME AROUND. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE WEEK BRINING WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
IFR CEILINGS LINGER OVER KDHN, KABY, AND KECP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
SHOULD LIFT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE FOR KTLH AND KECP, WHERE
WINDS WILL BE A BIT CALMER.
THE FRONT THEN BARRELS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT, WHICH IS REPRESENTED BY THE
PROB30S FOR EACH SITE. WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS
POSSIBLE WITH LATER TAF PACKAGES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SEA FOG PERSISTING
EAST OF APALACHICOLA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE RAPIDLY AND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND IT. SOME GALE-FORCE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THE ELEVATED WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
THROUGH TODAY. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ONE MORE
NIGHT, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND
IT. ALTHOUGH BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL TEMPER SOME FIRE
CONCERNS, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RHS IN THE 20%-30% RANGE
COULD BRING SOME FIRE CONCERNS INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
FOG CONCERNS AND OTHER REMARKS...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND, PRIMARILY EAST OF TALLAHASSEE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN DROUGHT WITH PORTIONS OF THE FL
BIG BEND STILL SUFFERING FROM EXTREME DROUGHT. WHILE SOME RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH MONDAY'S COLD FRONT, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.
THERE DOESN'T SEEM TO BE MUCH CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM EITHER.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 60 72 34 51 / 0 50 0 0
PANAMA CITY 60 72 34 52 / 30 40 0 0
DOTHAN 55 67 30 47 / 30 30 0 0
ALBANY 59 69 30 49 / 10 30 0 0
VALDOSTA 58 74 32 51 / 0 60 0 0
CROSS CITY 56 76 35 56 / 0 20 0 0
APALACHICOLA 62 70 36 51 / 10 30 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM....WOOL
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
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